Written Commentary
TGIT. July US weather will be key for corn and soybean price action. Expect increase volatility and risk. Grains are mixed. SU is unchanged and near 8.92. CU is up 2 cents and near 3.52. WU is unchanged and near 4.98. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Rumors of early success for a virus vaccine could help markets.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 21 cents; HRW up 13; HRS up 8; Corn is up 37 cents; Soybeans up 39; Soymeal up $14.00, and; Soyoil up 105 points. SU support is 8.60, resistance 9.10. CU support is 3.45, resistance 3.60. WU support is 4.80, resistance 5.10.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 2 yuan, down 6 in Corn, up 3 in Soymeal, up 76 in Soyoil, and up 28 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 12 ringgit at 2,342 (basis September) at midsession on costlier rival vegoils. Increase US sanctions against China raises concern about US/China trade deal.
U.S. Weather Forecast calls for showers and thunderstorm activity will be drying up as we go through the day today in the Midwest. Things then look to be fairly quiet for the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest had some changes as the GFS model has turned drier with any rains for the period falling in the far northern Midwest and missing the cropland. The 11 to 16 day sees ridging centered over the southern Plains and southern Rockies. Rainfall would run average to below with temps in the east to run below average and, average to a bit above average in the west. The 6 to 10 day for the Delta sees rains to fall in most of the region.
Weekly US export sales should be 250-600 mt wheat, 450-900 mt corn and 600-1,600 mt soybeans.
World food prices rose in June to post their first increase of 2020 and mark a slight rebound after the sharp falls triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the United Nations food agency said; the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index averaged 93.2 points last month, up 2.4% on May; amid continued market uncertainty, the prices of vegetable oils, sugar and dairy products rebounded to multi-month highs following sharp declines in May, while in the cereals and meat indices, most prices remained under downward pressure.
Deliveries were 440 Soymeal; 2912 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 112 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 345 SRW Wheat, and; 535 HRS Wheat.
On Wednesday, funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 35,000 Corn; bought 11,000 Soybeans; net bought 7,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 208,000 Corn; net long 64,000 Soybeans; net short 39,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 2,000 Soyoil.
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