Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are slightly higher. US Dollar is unch. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Gold and coffee are lower on profit tsking. Grains could see pressure before this weeks Trump reciprocal tariffs. Trump announced 25 pct tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. CBOT closed Sunday night and Monday for holiday. Reopens for trading on Monday night.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.51. SH could be in 10.30-10.75 range. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. USDA could increase Brazil soybean crop 1 mmt and lower Argentina crop 1 mmt. Brazil soybean premiums are up on China buying. C/S Brazil forecast is drier. Brazil soybean futures at new highs. India weather remains warm and dry. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 374 vs USDA 380. Some could eventually see US soybean exports and crush up 25 mil bu each higher than USDA. Weekly US soybean exports are up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 7.
CORN
CH is near 4.91. CH near the higher end of a 4.80-5.00 range on strong demand corn. Dalian corn futures were higher. China futures near 11 week high. Funds remain large spec longs. C Brazil corn planting is now advancing. Argentina continues to see needed rains. USDA is expected to keep Brazil crop at 127 mmt but some are 1-2 mmt lower due to late plantings. USDA could also drop Argentina crop 1 mmt. US Midwest is forecasted to see 2 winter events, one mid week and another this weekend. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,526 vs USDA 1,540. Some could eventually see US corn exports and ethanol up 100 mil bu each higher than USDA but feed and residual down 175 mil bu. Weekly US corn exports are up 34 pct vs ly and USDA up 7.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.81. KWH is near 5.97. MWH is near 6.26. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 799 vs USDA 798. USDA could lower EU and Russia exports but raise Australia and Argentina. Weekly US corn exports are up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 20.
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