Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 1 cent and near 16.93. Overnight high was 17.08. SX is near15.16. SMN is near 461.4. BON is near 77.84. CN is down 4 cents and near 7.95. Overnight high was 8.03. CZ is near 7.44. WN is down 6 cents and near 11.02. Overnight high was 11.18. KWN is up 3 cents and near 11.79. Overnight high was 11.90. MWN is up 2 cents and near 11.75.
Ukraine war continues to escalate with Russia push to take Donbas region. US Fed poised to raise interest rates to fight inflation. US stocks are lower. Stocks are near key resistance. Crude is higher. Crude is near key support. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
IMF lowered World 2022 economic growth estimate from 4.4 pct estimated in Jan to 3.6. Never have so many countries experienced a recession at once, suffering lost capital, jobs, and livelihoods,” said World Bank Group President in a speech last week. “At the same time, inflation continues to accelerate, reducing the real incomes of households around the world, especially the poor.” 2021 World growth was 6.1 pct. IMF lowered China 2022 economic growth to 4.4 pct vs China goal of 5.5. China 2021 growth was 8.1. IMF lowered US 2022 economic growth to 3.7 pct vs 4.0 in Jan. IMF estimated US 2023 growth at 2.3 pct. US 2021 growth was 5.7 pct.
SN has found resistance near 17.00. Support is 16.47. Uncertain China demand offset lower South America supplies. BON has found resistance near 78 cents. Support 75. Higher World vegoil prices supportive. SMN in 452 to 465 range. Higher US crush offers resistance. Lower Argentina supplies offers support. CN has found resistance near 8.00. Support all the way back near 7.50. Market is overbought. WN is in 10.50 to 11.50 range. KWN is 11.50 to 12.00 range. Wheat futures are waiting for next Ukraine war headline and US 2022 HRW weather.
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