Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply higher. SU is up36 cents and near 13.77. SN has been bouncing around from 16.08-16.15. SMU is near 400.4. BOU is near 59.29. CU is up 10 cents and near 6.01. CN is near 7.51. WU is up 35 cents and near 8.40. KWU is up 29 cents and near 8.80. MWU is up 30 cents and near 9.16. Rains continue is north US Midwest. Central and south drier and warmer next week.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher but near $95. Overnight low was $93. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton are higher.
Soybean and soymeal futures are trying to find support from and oversold tech picture. RSI tested a low near 21. Next week, most of US Midwest will be warm and dry. USDA will release new US/World supply and demand report on July 12. USDA will have to decide what is more important; drop carryout due to lower acres and/or drop supply but also demand especially soybeans to China and World vegoil demand. Dalian palmoil price is the lowest in 2022. Rapeoil is near 9 month lows, Soyoil is at 6 month lows. China soymeal pricing has turned lower. Crush pace is down 9 pct from last year. Indonesia palmoil policy remains confused after they announced a 40 pct biodiesel blend which could add 2.5 mmt to domestic use.
Wheat futures rallied sharply overnight based on lower US Dollar and higher commodity prices. Crop fundamentals have been taking a back seat to money flow, higher US Dollar and lower commodity prices due to inflation and recession talk. Wheat also trying to correct an oversold tech picture with Chicago wheat RSI only 20. Ukraine foreign Minister said there is no deal to open Ukraine wheat and corn exports.
CU is near 6.12. CU went from a low on Tuesday at 5.82 and oversold to a high overnight high near 6.12. US/World corn supply is tight with only a slight increase in Ukraine exports. Dry US Midwest weather next week could be offering support. Ukraine foreign Minister said there is no deal to open Ukraine wheat and corn exports. Dry east Europe has some estimating EU corn crop near 62 mmt vs USDA 68 and Brussels 72.
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