Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher led by wheat. SN is up 8 cents and near 16.74. SX is near15.06. SMN is near 455.2. BON is near 77.73. CN is up 8 cents and near 7.92. CH tested 7.99. CZ is near 7.43. WN is up 21 cents and near 11.26. KWN is up 19 cents and near 11.77. MWN is 29 cents and near 11.76.
US Dollar is near 100.69. Crude is near $105. Crude tested $108. Ukraine war continues. US S/P is near 4,364. Most feel Fed will increase rates 50 basis points on May 4. Some could see a 75 point increase to fight inflation.
US March NOPA soybean crush was a record 181.7 vs 178.0 ly. Soyoil stocks were 1,908 mil lbs vs 2,072 expected and 1,771 ly. SN traded over 20 DMA resistance near 16.43 and Fridays high near 16.69. BON traded over 77 cents and could test 83 on World vegoil supply concerns. US weekly soybean exports were near 4 week high and 7th straight week where exports were above last year. Some estimate US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 180 mil bu vs USDA 260.
CN and CZ made new highs. Talk of lower Ukraine exports and higher US livestock and ethanol margins offered support. Domestic basis firmed. US farmer selling has slowed. Some feel US 30 days Midwest weather forecast suggest US farmers should get intended 2022 acres planted on time. Some feel South America corn supply and exports may be overstated by 230-315 mil bu. CK test 7.99. Some estimate US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,150 mil bu vs USDA 1,440.
Wheat futures are higher. KS temps should warm into Friday. C KS could see light rains Friday night and Saturday. Matif wheat futures rallied on realization that Black Sea wheat exports may be down and EU will have to try to make up the difference. KC wheat may need to add price premium if May weather is warm and dry. Some look for KC value closer to 14.00 post July. Most estimate US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 672 mil bu vs USDA 678 and 2022/23 carryout near 815.
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