Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher in front of long Holiday weekend. SN is up 10 cents and near 16.75. SX is near15.12. SMN is near 463.8. BON is near 76.09. CN is up 2 cents and near 7.80. CZ is near 7.38 and new highs. WK is up 7 cents and near 11.21. WN is near 11.28. KWK is up 4 cents and near 11.78. KWN is near 11.90. MWK is up 7 cents and near 11.66. MWN is near 11.61. Question is how much current prices are factoring in all news.
US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed and near $104. Ukraine war continues. US stocks are mixed. Investors watching, inflation, global economic growth and earnings.
US Midwest weather will be a mixture on cool/wet east and cool/dry west. Dry weather continues in US south plains. Some rains forecast for late next week. Central Brazil and Argentina are dry. Ukraine and Russia wet.
Soyoil futures rallied on talk US SBO is cheapest vegoil, Argentina trucker strike slowing Argentina exports and talk of cancelled delivery receipts. China Jan-Mar meat imports down 37 precent due to higher domestic supplies. May soybean board crush +1.90 cash +2.50. Argentina soybean harvest 19 pct vs 25 average. Slow harvest due to diesel shortage and trucker strike. Crop est at 23 pct G/E and 42 mmt vs USDA 43.5. August Brazil export basis +230 vs US +130. Weekly US soybean export sales est at 300-1,000 mt old crop and 100-500 new
US wheat futures are up for 5th straight day. Egypt bought French wheat at record high $494. Tender suggested less offers from Russia, Ukraine and Baltic due to export risk. Egypt may now turn to India where prices are near $325-350. US south plains are dry. Temps should begin to warm seasonally. EU weather model has rain late next week. GFS is drier. Key to Mondays trade will be this rain event. Weekly US wheat export sales est at 100-250 mt old crop and 100-400 new
US corn futures are higher. CN is near 7.80 and CZ is near 7.38. Both new highs. East US Midwest weather is wet and could delay corn plantings there. Ukraine corn exports and 2022 crops in doubt. There will be a seasonal increase in US ethanol blend demand. There is also talk of increase interest for US ethanol exports. Argentina corn price a steep discount to US. Argentina corn crop rated 20 pc G/E with crop est at 49 mmt vs USDA 53. Argentina trucker strike continues. Weekly US corn export sales est at 850-1,700 mt old crop and 300-800 new.
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