Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Atlanta Fed reported GDP Now and estimated Q1 US GDP will be negative and suggest US economy will be in recession. Trade will also be watching China “Two Session” meeting over next few weeks for new economic policy. Without China trade US farm grain prices are projected to decline. Trump tariffs Tuesday, Trump State of Union address to Congress Tuesday. Some could see seasonal bottom midweek but need adverse South America or US spring weather to trigger rallies. Managed funds do not trade overnight session. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is unch near $69.64.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.24and off overnight session high near 10.31. USDA est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.0 vs 87.1 last year. USDA also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout at 320 mil bu. Some are closer to 350 due to higher crush but lower exports. Some est US 2024/25 soybean carryout closer to 330 than USDA 380 due to higher crush and exports. Lack of Trump support for increase biofuel demand offered resistance to soyoil. S Brazil and Argentina saw rains. Feb was dry for NE Brazil. Feb US S plains and NW Midwest was drier than normal. Negative China crush margins and Increase Trump tariffs could delay new China buying.
CORN
CK is near 4.66. USDA US 2025 corn acres at 94.0 vs 90.6 last year. USDA est US 2025/26 corn carryout at 1,965 mil bu. Some could see carryout closer to 1,835 higher domestic use. Most look for US 2024/25 corn carryout near USDA 1,540. Brazil and Argentina saw rains. Feb Brazil corn areas were dry. US NW Midwest is dry. Trade worried about Trump tariffs to Mexico, number one buyer of US corn.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.58. KWK is near 5.74. MWK is near 6.00. Wheat futures are oversold. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. USDA est US 2025 wheat acres at 47.0 vs 46.1 last year and 2025/26 carryout at 826 mil bu vs 793 this market year. Some could see carryout closer to 835 due to higher imports and lower feed use.
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