Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Super Friday. Grains are mixed to slightly lower. USDA report Next Tuesday. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are mixed. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Coffee is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.57. Higher China prices linked to late Brazil harvest, US delay in Canada tariffs slowing Canada canola sales and domestic feed buyers covering shorts. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Brazil soybean crop est are now above 175 mmt. Rains fell in C Argentina. Hot temps may offset the rains. Argentina soybean crop 17 pct G/E vs 20 last week and 37 ly. There is talk late Brazil harvest prompted China to buy Argentina soybeans. India weather remains warm and dry. Weekly US soybean export sales are up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 374 vs USDA 380.
CORN
CH is near 4.93. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Brazil ethanol plants are coming on line with forecast of higher production. Given tighter US corn outlook, there is little room for lower SA crops. Slow planting of Brazil safrina crop could drop crop est below 125 mmt. Argentina corn poor crop is up 2 pct to 26 pct and vs 15 ly. Crop could be below 50 mmt. Weekly US corn export sales are up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. Ukraine est soil moisture levels are lowest in 7 years. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,526 vs USDA 1,540.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.86. KWH is near 6.07. MWH is near 6.29. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Matif wheat futures rallied due to concern about west EU crop and reluctant farmer selling. EU weather is drier. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Weekly US wheat export are up 8 pct vs ly and USDA up 20 pct. China delayed or redirected 600 mt of wheat destined for import. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 799 vs USDA 798.
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