Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. Turnaround Monday? US stocks are higher. Gold is lower. Crude is lower. USD is lower. US Midwest forecast into June 30 is favorable. South plains could be dry helping harvest. West EU is dry. Dry China areas could see rains. Central Asia temps over next 10 days will be warmer than average. Isreal and Iran continue to trade rocket attacks to each other. Trump is in Alberta, Canada for G7 meeting.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.69. BON 53.28. EPA RVO biofuel policy was 7.12 bil gals vs 5.25 hoped. One group looks for lower US 25/26 exports and carryout closer to 500. US May NOPA soybean crush is est at 193.8 mil bu vs 183.6 ly. The WASDE didn’t bring anything meaningful, nevertheless the key driver now will be how the situation in the Middle East will unfold. Medium term price trajectory hinges on US weather and the structure of any US-China deal in addition to the upcoming US quarterly stocks report.
CORN
CN is near 4.40. One group est US 2025/36 carryout closer to 2,030 mill bu due to lower exports. July corn gained on December with higher export outlook tightening US 2024/25 numbers. Given a mostly favorable US Midwest weather outlook, most analyst are bearish Sep and Dec futures. Argentina remains low cost origin for corn. The reality of Brazil’s crop size, US weather in July, and crude’s reaction to Middle East developments will drive the market medium term, but the USD made its lowest weekly close in over 3 years on Friday.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.53. KWU is near 5.50. MWU is near 6.41. Global wheat import demand remains slow. Improved crop conditions could increase US HRW wheat carryout to 500 mil bu. Some feel WU range could be 5.20-5.80. KWU 5.00-5.60. MWU 5.80-6.60. Friday’s 100 mt Tunisian purchase saw the Balkans and Black Sea sales below any other origin. The trade will now watch the Mid-East for any further escalation, including the impact on freight or any additional insurance premium for those destinations. Approaching north hemisphere harvest offers resistance.
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