Written Commentary
Grains are mixed to lower. SU is down 11 cents and near 8.87. CU is down 3 cents and near 3.22. Higher than expected USDA rating of US corn and soybean crops is weighing on soybeans and corn. WU is up 1 cent and near 5.33. US Dollar is higher. Gold is higher.
2 US drug companies announced virus vaccines are in final stage of testing. US Fed meeting this week. Trade will be watching for their take on US economy and if more stimulus is needed. US Senate announced new stimulus package. Senate leaders met with House leaders to discuss a compromise. Some feel US should self-quarantine for 3 weeks, no intra state travel, no international travel and shutdown restaurants and bars for 3 weeks and virus would be contained. UK announced quarantine on travelers from Spain due to increase in cases.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 31 yuan, down 3 in Corn, down 41 in Soymeal, down 94 in Soyoil, and down 92 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 62 ringgit at 2,609 (basis October) at midsession on cheaper rival oils, further position-evening.
The US Midwest 6 to 10 day weather forecast saw no major changes as the GFS is still indicating some rains to fall in the OH River Valley over the weekend with things fairly quiet elsewhere for the period; temps are seen near average. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest looks for average to a bit below average rainfall with temps to run average to a bit below.
USDA rated the corn crop72 pct good/ex vs 69 last week. 12 pct pf US corn crop is traded below trend including MI and OH. 39 pct is rated at trend including IL, IN, NE and ND. 39 pct is above trend including IA, MN, MO, SD and WI. Crop watchers increase US corn yield 1.5 bpa per acre.
USDA rated the soybean crop 72 pct good/ex versus 69 last week. 8 pct pf US soybean crop is traded below trend including OH. 42 pct is rated at trend including AR, IL, IN, MI, TN and ND. 44 pct is above trend including IA, MN, MO and WI. Crop watchers increase US soybean yield 1.0 bpa per acre.
USDA estimated 81 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested. USDA raised US spring wheat crop rating to 70 pct good/ex.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 8% ahead of a year ago (up 5% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year, Corn 16% behind a year ago (17% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans are down 4% on the year (down 2% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 5,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 130,000 Corn; net long 90,000 Soybeans; net short 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 34,000 Soyoil.
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