Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is unchanged and near 13.74. SMH is near 436.2. BOH is near 44.75. CH is up 1 cent and near 5.35. WH is down 10 cents and near 6.48. KWH is down 7 cents and near 6.29. Grain futures doing a poor job of rationing demand. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed . Crude is also mixed. Gold is lower.
Financial headwind headlines offering resistance to grains. Fed suggested moderating US economy. Dow below 50 day moving average. US Dollar above 50 day moving ave, Crude stuck near 52.50.
Heavy rains continue in S Brazil, slowing harvest there. Rains raising concern about soybean quality. razil soybean vessel line up 7 mmt. Could grow to 10-12 mmt. 5 mmt could be switched to US.
Brazil truckers strike Monday. Argentina truckers blocking roads to ports.
Trade looking for more US soybean sales announced today to China. US corn commit to China near 14 mmt, Ukraine 5 mmt, Brazil 3 mmt. Some could see imports above 25 mmt.
Asian markets higher. Crush margins positive. Rumors some US crushers not offering product after May. Russia farmer not selling wheat. Farmers want $317 vs paper prices near $289.
Fact latest NOAA data shows La Nina strengthening could suggest warmer and drier US 2021 summer. Some are using US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,100 vs USDA 1,552 and soybean 65 vs USDA 140.
Weekly US corn export sales are est near 900-1,600 mt. Commit is near 78 pct of USDA goal
Weekly US soybean export sales est near 800-1,400 mt. Export commit near USDA 60 mmt goal.
Weekly US wheat export sales est near 250-600 mt versus 330 last week.
Argentina, Russia and EU weighing options to preserve supplies of domestic wheat short of export quotas.
Some feel soybean futures need to test 15.00. soymeal 450, corn 6.00 and wheat 7.00 to slow demand.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; bought 2,000 Corn; net bought 6,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 390,000 Corn; net long 158,000 Soybeans; net long 72,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 106,000 Soyoil.
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