Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US west Midwest and EU 2 week weather forecast is mostly warm and dry. SU is down 10 cents and near 13.60. SMU is near 410.8. BOU is near 56.81. CU is unch and near 5.99. Overnight high was 6.10. WU is down 2 cents and near 8.08. Overnight high was 8.29. KWU is down 1 cent and near 8.61. Overnight high was 8.81. MWU is up 10 cents and near 9.24. Overnight high was 9.35.
US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Higher inflation raising concern about demand and corporate earnings.
Weekly US corn export sales are est at 100-400 mt, soybeans -100 – 300 and wheat 200-400.
Talk of an Ukraine export agreement offers resistance to corn and wheat. China June edible imports were down 21 pct vs May and 75 pct ly due to lower restaurant demand. China soybean imports down 8 pct. China hog imports down 39 pct due to higher domestic production. Malaysian palmoil higher on talk Indonesia will stop sending workers to Malaysia due to breach of contract. Malaysian palmoil futures had been lower on Asian demand concerns. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil prices were higher. Corn was also higher.
Argentina farmer soybean selling slowed to either crop may be smaller or farmers looking for higher inflation led prices. Brazil soybean farmer selling also slowed due to lower prices due to drop in exports to China. Argentina corn crop 51 mmt vs BAGE est pf 49 and USDA 53. Weekly US ethanol production was down 4 pct due to short week. More concern about EU corn crop due to dryness. EU also concern about corn imports from Brazil due to more Brazil corn export to China. Argentina wheat crop 17.7 mmt vs USDA 19.5. Dry weather reducing EU wheat farmer selling. EU domestic wheat basis is at all-time high. EU wheat crop protein might be lower than normal.
Officials said that the talks concluded with an agreement on broad parameters of how grain can again be exported through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, but cautioned that any deal still needs to be signed off by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officials believe this could happen when the Russian leader meets Turkish President Erdogan next week in Tehran. Under the broad agreement reached Wednesday, grain could ship from three Ukrainian ports in convoys escorted by Ukrainian vessels, with a cease-fire to protect vessels within geographical limits and some minesweeping.
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