Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 4 cents and near 12.90. SMH is near 382.1. BOH is near 53.31.CH is unch and near 5.91. WH is down 3 cents and near 7.74. KWH is up 2 cents and near 8.15. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 10.18. OH is up 6 cents and near 6.69.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Copper, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. On Monday, most commodities were lower on concern of lower demand due to Omicron spread. Most commodities are higher overnight on pre Holiday evening positions.
Increase tension between Russia and EU. Russia cut gas exports to EU. EU prices higher. Dalian soybean, soyoil and rapeoil futures lower. Palmoil, soymeal and corn higher. India dropped palmoil import tax. Halted commodity trading to fight inflation. Palmoil futures higher on talk of increase India demand and floods slowing Malaysian harvest.
US south plains will remain dry. Canada prairies and N plains seeing snow cover. S Russia dry. S Brazil and Argentina forecast is warm and dry. Unexpected Argentina rains overnight negative.
There was talk of increase China interest in US/Brazil soybeans, US exports down 29 pct vs ly. SH tested 2 month high, soymeal 6 month high. Central Brazil rains could delay harvest. Matif and Canada rapeseed futures dropped following lower US soyoil futures trade.
Omicron scare negative corn futures. SA weather and strong US cash basis helping. Corn bulls looking for higher 2022 futures due to tight US supply vs demand. US domestic corn use higher than USDA estimate. Corn exports higher esp Canada/Mexico.
US south plains dryness supports KC futures. Some est 2022 HRW crop at 737, carryout 191. Same analyst est US 2022 wheat crop at 1,825 carryout 470. RMA WW acres lower than est. China buying Australia wheat. Now 5 mmt. Export capacity max until May, 2022. Russia export tax $122.50. Could reach $142.50. Exports now 31 mmt vs USDA 36.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
