Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. GFS weather model remains wet for US Midwest the 2nd week of the forecast. SN is up 8 cents and near 14.80. SX is down 7 cents and near 13.38. SMN is near 374.5. BON is near 66.76. CN is down 2 cents and near 6.57. CZ is down 9 cents and near 5.72. WN is down 11 cents and near 6.63. KWN is down 11 cents and near 6.17. MWN is down 1 cent and near 7.45. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is unch. Trade watching Fed comment on economy and inflation.
GFS weather model suggest dry/warm US Midwest weather this week. Wetter conditions next week. Key remains if US Gulf tropical storm pushes gulf moisture up into the Midwest .
USDA dropped US weekly corn ratings 4 pct to 68 G/E. IA down 14, IL down 6, MN down 11. USDA dropped soybean rating 5 pct to 62 pct G/E vs 72 ly. IL down 11, IA down 12, MN down 9. ND soybean crop rated 24 G/E. US spring crop rated 37 pct G/E vs 81 ly. ND 29 vs 84 ly. One crop watcher est US corn yield at 177.5 on 93.5 acres, soybean 50.8 on 88.0 acres.
US farmers have slowed new crops selling. Need rains across N Midwest and N plains.
US winter wheat harvest 4 pct vs 2 last week and 15 ly. OK test weight high but protein low. Weekly US soybean exports were low, corn above last week but lower than expected.
Rumors persist that China will feed less corn. Est 286 mmt vs 293 previous and 278 ly. Some est down 40.
Palmoil prices continue lower of demand concern. Dalian futures all lower catching up to US drop.
Russia is on holiday but maps suggest better spring wheat rains next week. EU weather favorable.
There is talk of record US HRW feeding in west crop area. No new export demand. SRW ratings high. Could see historic drop in US HRS, PNW white wheat and US Durum 2021 crop size.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; 21,000 corn; 13,000 soybeans; 6,000 soyoil and 6,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 12,000 SRW wheat long 271,000 corn, 134,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal and 76,000 soyoil.
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