Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SF is down 7 cents and near 14.28. SMF is near 405.5. BOF is near 70.54. CH is down 4 cents and near 6.67. WH is down 7 cents and near 7.89. KWH is down 1 cent and near 9.11. MWH is up 7 cents and near 9.57. CFTC report is delayed until today due to US holiday.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower and back to near January lows. Copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Gold and silver are higher.
GSI commodity index is lower and gapped below 600. China daily Covid cases increased above 40,000 which increased lockdowns and weakening economy. Strict Covid policy is triggering rare increase in civil protest increasing concern of police intervention and crackdown. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower.
Brazil could see daily chances of showers over the next 2 weeks. Best rains are in N and NE Brazil. Rains then move into C and S Brazil after Dec 1. Argentina remains dry. Best chance for rain is from Dec 1-3. BA and Cordoba could see .25-1.50 inches. Northern areas might see .10-.85 inches. Argentina will need 15-18 inches of rain Dec-Feb.
Argentina announced a new soya peso deal that farmers could sell soybean at 230 peso/dollar versus current rate of 165. This is expected to increase farmer selling and soybean crush and exports. This will compete with US Jan-Feb exports.
Some feel that slow demand for US exports could offer resistance near 6.70 CH, 14.50 SH and 9.50 KWH. US domestic corn basis has rallied 25-50 cents over last few days due to lack of farmer selling. US wheat price premium to other origins narrowed last week but Russia prices still lowest to buyers. Russia continues to bomb key Ukraine cities and power grids. Half of Ukraine is in the dark.
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