Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 5 cents and near 13.73. SMF is near 449.0. BOF is near 51.91. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.88. WH is unch and near 5.70. KWH is down 1 cent and near 6.19. MWH is up 3 cents and near 7.27. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Short week.
SF is near 13.73. Heavy rains continue in S Brazil and NE Argentina. Weekend N/C Brazil rains were less than forecasted and this week’s rains will be spotty. US soybean total soybean exports down 8 pct vs ly and USDA forecast of 11 pct down. China sow heard numbers dropped for 10th straight month. China Ag Minister said hog numbers still too high due to higher sow productivity and lower consumer pork demand. Global protein demand remains strong with Argentina supply for export down from ly. Argentina farmer is not selling cash due to uncertainty of new President. Long-term forecast of higher US domestic renewable fuel demand supports soyoil. One group est US may need to see increase of 11-12 mil soybean acres by 2025/26 to satisfy crush demand. Where does that come from? Corn? Wheat?
CH is near 4.88 and inching higher. Corn supported by weaker US Dollar and less than need rains in C/N Brazil and still too much rain in S Brazil. US total corn exports up 24 pct vs ly and USDA forecast of 25 pct higher. Ukraine fob corn export prices are below US but US has a 3 month window to try to increase exports. China sow heard numbers dropped for 10th straight month. China Ag Minister said hog numbers still too high due to higher sow productivity and lower consumer pork demand. US corn supply is adequate but US farmer is not selling and still in good financial shape. Argentina farmer is not selling cash due to uncertainty of new President.
Hand of a farmer touching ripening wheat ears in early summer.
KC wheat futures are lower and at new lows. MLS spring wheat is higher. US HRW crop areas remain dry. USDA raised winter wheat G/E crop rating 1 pct to 48. Last year was 32. Australia futures dropped to 3 month low despite dry west and too wet east. Russia wheat remains lowest vs other exporters. Global import demand is down due to drop in reserves. EU plantings are delayed due to wet weather in east, West EU has dried out. Matif wheat futures are near 5 month low.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
