Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US jobs day. US Dollar is lower and near 4 month low. Crude is higher and near $67.51. Trade is now officially confused over on and off again US tariff policy. South America weather ok but some areas in Brazil and Argentina could soon need rain.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.29. US soybean board crush remans near 3-4 month low. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. China Dalian soymeal. Soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Trade est of Brazil soybean crop at 169.1 mmt vs USDA 169 and Argentina 48.8 mmt vs USDA 49. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs USDA 380. US soybean export commt is up 13 pct ly and USDA est up 9. USDA announced 20 mt US soyoil sold to unknown but no new soybean sales. Brazil soybean export logistics are being tested. Canada canola export are near 6.1 mmt vs 3.4 ly.
CORN
CK is near 4.65. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. Brazil corn supply tight before safrina harvest in July. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in E WCB, ECB and SE. Mexico had a conversation with US on tariffs. Mexico could leave corn off retaliatory list. US could reprieve some Ag imports from tariffs. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. US corn export cmomit is up 26 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 126.0 mmt vs USDA 126.0 and Argentina at 49.0 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 1,516 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Korea is back tendering for corn with prices near $240 vs $260 2 weeks ago.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.47. KWK is near 5.58. MWK is near 5.86. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. Russia export margins are improving. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 mil bu vs USDA 794. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. Matif wheat futures were lower and at 6 month low with higher Euro negative. EU wheat crop rated 74 pct G/E. This below average but above ly.
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