Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed, mostly lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower. Crude is higher. There is new concern that US Fed may not drop interest rates at Dec meeting. There are reports that China may be studying how Russia is skirting sanctions due to Ukraine invasion. This could be due potential invasion of Taiwan. Trump warns 100 pct tariff on BRICS members imports if they move away from using US Dollar.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.96. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil were higher. There is new talk that Brazil crop estimates are now over 172-176 mmt vs USDA 169 and 153 last year. Argentina crop is estimated at 52-55 mmt vs USDA 51.0. Higher South America soybean supply could suggest lower soymeal futures to 275.This could drag soybean prices lower and below 9.50. US soyoil prices are a steep discount to palmoil which could increase demand for US soyoil exports.. Some feel soybean board crush margins could drop and soyoil share of crush could increase from 42.5 pct to 45.
CORN
CH is near 4.31. CH could be in a 4.20-4.40 range. Dalian corn futures were lower. Nearby corn export PNW price is lower to Asian buyers vs Brazil. US corn prices are also best to EU and N Africa. US total corn export commit front loaded and near 32.4 mmt vs 24.4 ly. US Dollar is higher and could slow futures sales There is talk that Brazil crop is above 130 mmt vs USDA 127. S Africa crop is est at 12.7 mmt or down 23 pct vs ly. S Africa futures are making new highs. Crude is higher. OPEC meeting this week could be key. Trump wants to increase US production.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.46. KWH is near 5.40. MWH is near 5.90. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. Matif wheat futures were down due to slow export demand and improved Black Sea weather. This despite talk EU wheat crop is 119.5 mmt vs USDA 122.6. World wheat matrix is tightening for high quality wheat. US wheat export commit is 15.1 mmt vs 12.6 ly.
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