Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. March Madness, Month end, quarter end, USDA report day, weekly US export sales and waning Gibbous phase super moon. SK is down. CK is unch and WK is down. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. CBOT will be closed Friday for holiday. Some est total US 2024 crop acres down 3.6 mil from last year.
SK is near 11.88. SK-SN carry widening on export concern. Asia palmoil and soyoil prices are lower. China soymeal futures were lower. Crush margins are also lower. Weekly US export sales are est at 300-700 mt vs 494 last week. Soymeal sales are est at 150-350 mt vs 243 last week. Trade estimates US 2024 soybean acres near 86.5 mil vs 83.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 soybean stocks near 1,828 mil bu vs 1,687 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on US spring weather and demand for US soymeal and soyoil.
CK is down now to near 4.27. Some look for increase US farmer selling old crop stocks before planting. Weekly US export sales are est at 800-1,300 mt vs 1,185 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 5 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs ly and highest since March 2023. Trade estimates US 2024 corn acres near 91.8 mil vs 94.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 corn stocks near 8,445 mil bu vs 7,396 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on US spring weather
WK is near 5.46. Australia and Matif futures continue lower looking for demand. Weekly US export sales are est at -100 to 300 mt vs -109 last week. Trade estimates US 2024 wheat acres near 47.3 mil vs 49.6 ly. Trade estimates US March 1 wheat stocks near 1,047 mil bu vs 941 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on global demand, US/EU/Russia spring weather and Russia export pace.
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