Written Commentary
by Steve Freed,
Grains are mixed. SN is unchanged and near 8.36. CN is up 2 cents and near 3.15. WN is unchanged and near 5.25. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Grains futures may be oversold but slow export demand and drop in corn ethanol demand limits the upside in prices. Slow reopen of US economy state by state may be helping equities.
Delivery registrations remain near 1 soybean, 564 soymeal, 2,668 soyoil, 3 corn and 11 Chicago wheat.
US Midwest 6-10 day calls for normal temps and rains. US 8-14 day forecast calls for cooler temps and normal rains. US south plains will be warm and dry. Europe and Black Sea area could see scattered rains.
Weekly US corn exports were near 42 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 878 mi bu vs 1,364 last year. US corn planting pace was at 27 percent and above trade guesses. Big increase were in IL 37 pct, IA 39 pct and MN 40 pct. Brazil corn crop was estimated near 97 mmt or down from previous est. Brazil may need to import 3mmt corn to meet needs before harvest. US sorghum prices continue to trend higher due to strong export demand.
Weekly US soybean exports were near 20 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,230 mil versus 1,158 last year. China continues to show less interest in US soybeans. Last week China bought soybean from Brazil. Brazil soybean crop is estimated near 121 mmt. Last week real made new lows. This allowed farm prices to hit record high10.00 per bushel. US soybean plantings are near 8 pct. IL is 18, IA is 9 and Delta is near 30 pct.USDA dropped US weekly winter wheat ratings from 54 pct good/ex versus 54 last week. HRW ratings dropped due to recent freeze and drying conditions. PNW ratings also dropped. HRW areas will soon need a rain.
Improving Europe and N Russia weather offers resistance to prices. Uncertain Russia export policy adds uncertainty. World export demand remains slow. Feed demand is expected to drop due to lower corn prices.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 SRW wheat contracts, sold 20,000 corn, sold 4,000 soybeans, sold 2,000 soymeal and sold 1,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds were net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 176,000 Corn; net short 6,000 Soybeans; net short 7,000 Soymeal and net short 16,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
