Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 16 cents and near 12.91 SX is down 19 cents and near 12.80. SMU is near 353.4. BOU is near 59.33. CN is near 6.58. CU is down 10 cents and near 5.40. CZ is down 10 cents and near 5.25. WU is down 7 cents and near 6.56. KWU is down 4 cents and near 6.16. MWU is down 1 cent and near 8.01. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
Rains in E NE, SW IA and moving into MO and IL today. NW and N plains hot/dry next week. Some feel US HRS weather like 1988 when farmers harvest only 75 pct ND acres and yield was 15.
Many position traders are unwilling to take new positions into USDSA report. Funds short corn. Commercial exporter appears to be large corn short. Corn and soybean crushers covered into Aug.
Based on USDA data, 41 pct of US Midwest soils are in drought. Record corn yield remains in doubt.
China Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil prices were lower. Hog margins lowest in 7 years. Lower soybean futures and higher real limits Brazil farmer selling. No corn at port to load corn vessels. Matif rapeseed futures trade 10 day high. Canada canola futures limit up. Expanding limits today.
Weekly US corn export sales est near 300-900 mt, soybean 200-800 mt and wheat 200-525. US fob soybean prices near $536 vs Argentina $507. Argentina soymeal $386 vs US $401. US fob corn prices near $291 vs Ukraine $285, Argentina $230. US HRW fob wheat $283 vs Russia $252.
Most est US June 1 soybean stocks near 763 mil bu vs 1,381 ly. US soybean acres near 88.5 vs 83.1 ly. Most est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,014 mil bu vs 5,003 ly. US corn acres near 93.6 vs 90.8 ly. Most est US June 1 wheat stocks near 841 mil bu vs 1,028 ly. US all wheat acres near 46.2 vs 44.3 LY.
Baltic and Russia new crop wheat export prices remain a discount to US. Rains in SW EU too much?
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; sold 5,000corn; 3,000 soybeans; 5,000 soymeal and bought 6,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 7,000 SRW wheat; long 237,000 corn, 102,000 soybeans, long 12,000 soymeal and long 78,000 soyoil.
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