Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 9 cents and near 14.42. SMZ is near 425.4. BOZ is near 64.17. CZ is down 4 cent and near 6.73. WZ is down 3 cents and near 8.41. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 9.24. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 9.26.
US Dollar is higher US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. The Chinese Yuan has fallen to 7.015 and the first time the 7 barrier has been breached since July 2020.
The USDA’s 4 week update of soybean export sales produced a season total of 929 mill bu, up 13 pct vs last year. China represents 52 pct of the total and is up 27 pct (103 mil bu) vs last year, but that share could fall following recent volume buying of SA soybeans and the ongoing tension with US over Taiwan. Rumors continued of US SA soyoil imports, cash meal markets remain firm and NOPA August crush at 165.5 mil bu was marginally below the average trade guess of 166.1. However it was a record for the month soyoil stocks came in at a 13-month low of 1,565 million pounds and well below the average guess of 1,650 lbs. SX weekly range 15.08 post USDA report to the overnight low of 14.40.
CZ is down 5 cents. US RR contract resolution and US export sales update showing total commit near 484 mil bu and down 50 pct vs last year is offering resistance. Ukraine export corn price is 160 cents below US, SA is 80-90 cents below US. Some fear US corn exports could drop to 2,000 mil bu. Strong US domestic basis offers support. CZ is testing key support near 6.67-6.69 with next support 6.40. Some still feel USDA October estimate of US corn crop could be below their September estimate.
The USDA’s export sales update produced a season total of 375 mil bu and down 2 pct versus last year. Saudi Arabia is in today for 535kt Nov-Feb with results on Monday. Matif wheat closed lower both on the day and on the week due to weakness from the US and expectations that Russian wheat will take most, if not all of Saudi Arabia tender. US wheat futures dropped on reports that the US national rail strike had been averted. The update on US export sales showed the season total to be in line with the USDA projections, but HRW is now $70-75 above German wheat and $90-100 above Russian wheat US SRW is $30-35 above French and $50-55 above Russian. US share of World wheat trade could drop. In Argentina, BAGE lowered crop ratings again by 2 pct to just 15 pct G/E versus 50 pct last year. 11 pct of the crop is heading versus 16 pct average The main farming areas are facing the driest conditions in 30 years. WZ had an outside day closing below Wed low. This weeks range has been 8.84 to the overnight low of 8.36. KWZ is near 9.24. MWZ is near 9.26.
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