Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US imposed fees on Chinese built vessels as much as $1 million that enters a US ports. Also the order would initially call for 1 pct of all US goods to be carried on a US built/flagged vessels thereafter rising to 15 pct in 7 years. China responded vigorously opposing the fees and announced a rural policy to bolster food security including seeding GM seed. US Dollar is testing support. US stocks are higher post German election. Crude is near key support. Russia drones attacked Ukraine. Israel delayed release of Palestine prisoners.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.52. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. Potential new US fees could reduce already declining US trade relations. US Midwest temps should warm. Some could see US soybean carryout 50 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports and crush. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.4 vs 87.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 367 mil bu vs 2024/25 380. Argentina and S Brazil is seeing rains. Dry N/C weather helping soybean harvest but could stress coffee.
CORN
CK is near 5.01. Cash is lower and there is talk of March corn deliveries. Some could see US corn carryout 35-40 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports offsetting lower feed and residual. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 corn acres at 93.5 vs 90.6 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 corn end stocks at 1,907 mil bu vs 2024/25 1,540. Trump may support E15 in 5 Midwest states. Trump could also grant 1 year levy for small refineries. Argentina and S Brazil is seeing rains. Dry N/C weather helping 2nd corn crop plantings. 80-85 pct of MG corn is planted.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.95. KWK is near 6.13. MWK is near 6.38. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Temps are not as cold the week 1 of March. Russia crops did not see damage due to cold temps. Black Sea crops could see moderate temps and better chance for rain. India is warm and dry. West EU rains could drop French wheat quality. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 wheat acres at 46.7 vs 46.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat end stocks at 829 mil bu vs 2024/25 794.
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