Written Commentary
Grains are lower. Little bit of a turnaround in prices. SU is down 4 cents and near 8.94. CU is down 3 cents and near 3.43. WU is unchanged and near 4.93. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
Traders trying to balance uncertain US Midwest summer weather versus bearish supply and demand numbers and slow global export trade. US attache estimated China 2020 soybean imports near 90 mmt versus USDA 94 and 2020 at 91 mmt versus USDA 96.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 41 yuan, up 5 in Corn, up 4 in Soymeal, down 18 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were unchanged at 2,391 (basis September) at midsession awaiting fresh news.
U.S. Weather Forecast suggest erratic shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Corn Belt through next Monday will lead to some pockets that receive enough rainfall for favorable crop development and some pockets that get missed with increasing crop stress. Rain will be more substantial in the southwestern Corn Belt from eastern Nebraska through southwestern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri due to a few organized complexes of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warm enough to promote net drying in many areas. NOAA US Midwest 6-10 day and 8-14 day is still hot and dry.
USDA dropped US corn ratings to 71 pct good/ex. 10 pct of the crop is pollinations versus 16 average. 14 pt of the crop has below trend yield outlook including CO, MI and OH. 34 pct of the crop is trend yield including IL. IN, NE and ND. 42 pct of the crop is above trend including IA, MN, SD and WI.
USDA left US left soybean crop ratings at 71 pct good/ex. 12 pt of the crop has below trend yield outlook including MI, MS and ND. 38 pct of the crop is trend yield including AR, IL. IN, OH and TN. 44 pct of the crop is above trend including IA, MN, , NE, SD and WI.
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 56% (trade estimate was 56%) versus 41% last week, 42% a year ago, 55% average. U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 51% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 52% a week ago and 64% a year ago. Spring Wheat was rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 69% last week, and 78% a year ago.
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