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Grains Lower, Early Brazil Harvest


Grains are lower. SN is down 2 cents and near 11.79. SMN is near 358.9. BON is near 43.30. CN is down 1 cent and near 4.47. WN is down 4 cents and near 6.03. KWN is down 6 cents and near 6.45. MWN is down 5 cents and near 7.02. Stocks are lower before US Fed meeting, US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher on talk of lower OPEC supply. Gold is lower. Higher and longer US rates could be competition for Gold bulls. There is talk of new Israel/Hamas ceasefire talks.


harvesting with the sunset

SN is near 11.79.. SK-SN spread -is near -22. Could be 500 deliveries. Heavy storms hit parts of the Midwest and east S plains. USDA est US soybean plantings near 18 pct and 10 average. Weekend rains could slow plantings. IL is 26, AR 56, IA 25, OH 10. US exports to date are down 18 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 15. Soymeal firm on fund buying and Argentina strike. Higher meal is helping board crush and dropping oil share to 3 month low. Asia palmoil futures lower on talk of lower palmoil exports. Matif rapeseed is higher on talk of Baltic replanting.

CN is near 4.47. Strong domestic demand and slow farmer selling is supporting futures and spreads. CK-CN near -9. CN-CZ is near -24. Could be zero deliveries. US corn plantings are 27 pct. IL 25, IA 39, MN 30, NE 22 and OH 6. US exports to date are up 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26. Brazil safrina harvest is starting early and offering resistance to Brazil futures. Brazil and Argentina farmer has slowed due to Argentina strike. Strike on higher wages but more important New President policies.

WN is near 6.03. KWK-WK is near +71 and new highs. US HRW south plains rains were less than hoped. Russia is forecast to see needed rains. Some est US 2024/25 carryout at 740 due to higher supply. Wheat could be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month. US spring wheat plantings 34 vs 15 last week. Winter wheat rating 49 G/E vs 50 las week and 28 ly. US exports to date are up 7 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 6.5. Could be 700 soyoil deliveries and no soymeal.



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