Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. China’s finance ministry said the country is imposing an additional 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn and cotton products, and an additional 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The new tariffs from China are set to go into effect on March 10. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is lower and near $67.61. US paused military aid to Ukraine.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 9.98.. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. Trump tariffs could delay new China buying. The protein complex is in turmoil as it pieces together the implications of the US trade war. The Canadian aspect will restrict canola (oil) supplies to the US but world vegoils demand will be tempered by recent Indian import numbers. China will direct future soybean buying to South America but they have quality issues, especially for long term strategic reserves. US soybean exports are up 10 pct vs last year and USDA up 8. The base price for soybean crop insurance is $10.54 down from $11.55 in 2024 and the lowest since $9.17 in 2020.
CORN
CK is near 4.49. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. Feb Brazil corn areas were dry. US NW Midwest is dry. US corn exports are up 32 pct vs last year and USDA up 7. USDA announced 114 mt US corn sold to Mexico. Brazil is getting its Safrinha crop into the ground and China and the US go head-to-head in a trade war. Other origins will hope to pick up some Chinese demand. The stalling of arms supplies to Ukraine will create an additional risk to their ability to defend port infrastructure and supply chain. The base price for corn crop insurance is $4.70 and up from $4.66 in 2024,
WHEAT
WK is near 5.40. KWK is near 5.54. MWK is near 65.87. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. US wheat exports are up 20 pct vs ly and USDA up 20. ABARE put the Australian wheat crop at 34.1 mmt vs USDA 32. The overall mood of the market is generally negative and basis slow exports and larger crops, the USDA will almost certainly increase world major exporter end-stocks in coming WASDE updates;
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