Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 13 cents and near 15.14. SMH is near 469.2. BOH is near 62.87. CH is down 5 cents and near 6.69. WH is down 13 cents and near 7.30. KWH is down 13 cents and near 8.30. MWH is down 15 cents and near 8.97. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher.
Soybean futures are lower. Argentina is dry over next few days. Rains are forecast this weekend. USDA Argentina crop is now est near 45.5 mmt. Key now is China demand. China 2022 pork production was up 4.6 pct. China GDP was 3 pct and lower than expected. USDA dropped their imports to 94.0 from 96.0 mmt. Import pace is 91.0 despite record Dec imports of 10.0. A lot of talk that increase soybean crush capacity in US north plains to satisfy forecast higher soyoil demand for biofuel and a need for 9 million more US soybean acres to satisfy demand.
Corn futures are lower. Argentina weather map shows better rains for Argentina and S Brazil. Trade still waiting for increase export demand with Brazil out of the market and Ukraine export supplies dropping. Where is China? Egypt is tender for corn. Some could see US 2023 corn acres lower than expected due to higher winter wheat acres.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia Ag Stats Agency raised their wheat crop estimate from 102.7 mmt to 104.4. USDA is still at 91.0. Lower Russia export prices is reducing US export share at offers key resistance. Higher than expected US 2023 SRW acres could weigh on WH. Egypt announced they will tender weekly for wheat using World Bank loan. Egypt announced they will subsidize 80 pct of population bread vs 70 previous. Algeria and Morocco are also tendering for wheat.
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