Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 14 cents and near 13.76. SMZ is near 455.8. BOZ is near 49.58. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.71. WZ is up 8 cents and near 5.78. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 6.40. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 7.31. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Could be some short covering before USDA report. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil forecast is dry. There are reports that China may have bought 600 mt US gulf and PNW soybeans. Soymeal futures may have found support from talk of lower Argentina crush and higher demand for US soymeal exports. There is also talk that Argentina rains could increase Argentina 2024 soybean crop and crush in March,2024 which could eventually weigh on US soymeal futures. Trade is looking for only a 1 mil bu increase in US crop and carryout. Surprise could be higher crop and carryout. US Sep soybean exports were 91 mil bu and up 12 from ly.
Corn futures are slightly higher and near 4.70 support. US Fob premiums have dropped on improved US barge loading logistics. Higher US Dollar and new lows below $80 Crude pushed corn futures lower. Funds added to large corn short. Could be some short covering before USDA report. Trade is looking for 15 mil bu in US crop and 18 mil bu increase in carryout. Surprise could be higher crop and carryout. US is dry, C/N Brazil is dry, S Brazil is wet and EU is wet. Brazil weather could delay plantings of the Safrina corn crop. US Sep corn exports were124 mil bu and up 21 from ly.
Wheat futures are higher. Could be some short covering before USDA report. Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export. Prices suggest Jordan and Algeria bought Russia wheat. This weighed on EU wheat futures. Managed funds remain big short in Chicago futures. Lack of new buying US wheat export continues to weigh on wheat futures. Trade estimates USDA to drop US carryout 1 mil bu, USDA could drop Argentina crop 1-2 mmt but leave Australia unchanged. USDA should increase Russia wheat exports and lower EU. US Sep wheat exports were only 68 mil bu vs 114 ly.
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