Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher before month end, quarter end, USDA report and US export sales. US stocks are mixed. USD is slightly lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. White House ordered government agencies to prepare for mass firings if US government shutdown. Mortgage Application Index showed lower rates for 4th consecutive week and applications were highest since Sep, 24. Most of Midwest is dry which should aid harvest. SA weather is favorable for crops.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.14. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher post Argentina zero export tax. It just took 2 days for Argentina to sell $7 bill of grain exports. Argentina sold 6.5 mmt soymeal, 4.0 mmt soybean (mostly China). Export tax now reverts back to original tax. Trade est Sep 1 stocks est soybean stocks near 323 mil bu and crop. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 600-1,600 mt. USDA announced 101 mt US soymeal to Guatemala.
CORN
CZ is near 4.25. Dalian corn futures were higher. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. US export prices remain competitive vs SA prices. USDA announced 312 mmt US 25/26 corn to Mexico. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,000-1,800 mt. Trade est Sep 1 stocks should be near 1,337 mil bu vs USDA 1,325. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. It just took 2 days for Argentina to sell $7 bill of grain exports. Argentina sold 1.5 mmt of corn.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.22. KWZ is near 5.09. MWZ is near 5.70. Some still feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Major wheat exports could see a 22-24 mmt increase in crops vs last year. Trade est Sep 1 wheat stocks near 2,043 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,925 mil bu vs 1,921 previous. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt. Matif futures followed higher US prices and increase French vessel line up mostly to Morocco. Increase vessel line up sparked fund short covering but now new fund buying.
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