Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Trump added 10 pct tariff to China goods. Trade watching China “Two Session” meeting over next few weeks for new economic policy. Ukraine President in Washington to sign rare mineral deal.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.41. Dalian soybean, soymeal , soyoil and were higher. Palmoil was lower. Soybean futures tested 10.35 SK support on reduced US/China relations. US soybean export commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Trade did not get good weekly soymeal sales. USDA est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.0 vs 87.1 last year. USDA also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout at 320 mil bu. Exports were 1,865 vs trade near 1,600 and crush at 2,475 with trade near 2,650. C/N Brazil rains could slow harvest. S/E is dry. N Argentina is dry. Rest of Argentina should see normal rains. Brazil farmer increased cash sales before Carnival. China crush margins are negative and could delay new buying.
CORN
CK is near 4.82. Funds were big sellers of corn on unexpected reaction to USDA US 2025/26 numbers. Dalian corn was higher. US corn export commit is up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. USDA US 2025 corn acres at 94.0 vs 90.6 last year. USDA est US 2025/26 corn carryout at 1,965 mil bu. Exports at 2,400 vs 2,450 this market year. Some are closer to 2,200. Ethanol was est at 5,500 vs 5,500 this year. Crop at 15,585 mil bu vs 14,867 ly. S Argentina and N/C Brazil are seeing rains. Dry S/C Brazil weather should help plantings but could begin to dry soils. S Africa est 2025 corn crop at 13.5 mmt vs 12.8 ly and USDA 17.0.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.67. KWK is near 5.89. MWK is near 6.08. WK is down almost 60 cents from last weeks high on reduced Russia weather concerns. There were 314 HRW deliveries and 466 Chicago SRW. US SRW and HRW prices are trying to be more competitive vs lower Russia prices. US HRS prices are competitive for high protein buyers. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Rains move into Baltics and W Ukraine but Russia is dry. USDA est US 2025 wheat acres at 47.0 vs 46.1 last year and 2025/26 carryout at 826 mil bu vs 793 this market year. US wheat export commit is up 10 pct vs ly and USDA up 20.
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