Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 4 cents and near 12.00. SMZ is near 311.6. BOZ is near 59.91. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.14. WZ is up 5 cents and near 7.23. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.27. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.54.
US stocks are higher. Bank earnings and low rates offset talk of US tapering talk. Crude is higher. Still concern about higher demand. Key resistance 82.18. US Dollar is lower and near initial support.
Dalian soybean, soyoil, soymeal and corn are lower. Rapeoil and palmoil are higher. Palmoil prices making new highs after India reducing vegoil import tariffs. US soyoil 49 pct oil share.
Commodity prices are oversold and trying to recover from IMF lower World 2021 and 2022 growth est.
More showers for US north plains and east Midwest, Argentina and Brazil rains. Russia is dry,
Weekly US export sales report delayed until Friday due to Mondays holiday.
China bought 3 US Feb soybean cargoes and 5 Brazil March. Cash inverse is pushing buying into 2022. US Sep NOPA soybean crush est at 155.1 mil bu vs 158.8 in Aug and 161.5 ly. Soyoil stocks 1,667 vs 1,668. Soymeal futures near 13 month low and 311. China users active buyers of soymeal.
Managed funds reduced corn long. Feel US corn carryout at 1,500 and World stocks at 301.7 adequate. Corn futures held 5.10 CZ support. Year ago 3.77. Futures oversold. Market needs demand. EU corn prices lower. Black Sea lower. EU yields higher. Ukraine 2022 acres lower due to high cost.
Wheat futures dropped on demand worries. US HRW export prices competitive in 2022. USDA lowered US and Canada wheat crop. EU, India, Australia exports higher. Russia still a coin toss. WZ held 7.20 support. Resistance 7.40. KWZ held support also near 7.20. 7.60 resistance.
US south Plains 2002 forecast drier than normal. S Brazil and Argentina dry. S Africa dry. La Nina.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
