Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are unch. SK is unch and near 11.65. SMK is near 337.5. BOK is near 45.44. CK is unch and near 4.24. WK is unch and near 5.78. KWK is up 1 cent and near 5.75. MWK is up 4 cents and near 6.65. US stocks are higher supported by positive chip maker earnings. Nestle earnings were lower than expected due to higher raw material cost. Cocoa making new highs. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
SK is near 11.65. SH-SK is near -4. SN-SX is +27. Futures remain oversold. Managed funds near record short soybean futures There continues to be a wide spread between Brazil soybean crop est. NE Brazil is wet. Rest of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay will be dry. . Rosario exchange est Argentina soybean crop at 49.5 mmt vs 52 previous and USDA 50. Dalian soybean futures were flat, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil was higher. US fob soybean export basis is +80. Brazil -80. Wide spread favors Brazil. Still, Brazil loading wait times is only 6 days vs one month last year. Some feel this due to lower demand, lower crop, lower farmer selling and dry harvest weather. Some est that US Feb Gulf loading capacity is sold out. Weekly US soybean export sales delayed due to Mondays holiday.
CK is near 4.24. CH-CK is near -13. CN-CZ is near -22. Futures remain oversold. Managed funds near record short corn futures. US domestic ethanol basis is firm. Weekly US ethanol prod and stocks est higher than last week. Some are worried about Brazil monsoon ending and could stress Brazil 2nd crop. Rosario exchange est Argentina corn crop at 57 mmt vs 59 previous and USDA 55. Weekly US corn export sales delayed due to Mondays holiday. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. Dry rest of Feb could raise talk of drier US summer.
WK is near 5.77. KWK 5.75. MWK 6.64. EU, Russia and Australia wheat prices continue to trend lower. Russia traders are back from conference in Dubai. Will see were they quote exports prices that have been near $217. US plains are dry and warm. EU has rains. Ukraine and Russia are dry. Weekly US wheat export sales delayed.
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