Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 30 cents and near 14.77. SX is down 38 cents and near 14.01. SMN is near 378.8. BON is near 64.26. CN is down 1 cents and near 6.69. 7CZ is down 26 cents and near 5.83. WN is down 19 cents and near 6.61. KWN is down 20 cents and near 6.17. MWN is down 22 cents and near 7.42. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is unch. Gold is lower.
Pre overnight trade calls were higher. Grain futures are trading sharply lower. Tech speaking, SN below 15.00, CN testing key 6.60 support and BON below 67 cents is negative.
Grain futures testing strong seasonal that grains prices top in June, assuming normal summer weather 11-14 day US Midwest weather maps are mixed. EU dry. GFS wet. US Gulf tropical storm may be key.
GSI Commodity Index is near support. Higher energy prices offers support. US Dollar was higher. Some analyst are looking for US Q3 GDP to be near 6.5-7.0 pct. UK could slow reopening due to virus.
USDA June report failed to lower US 20/21 and 21/22 corn carryout enough to attract new buying. Most analyst have a lower Brazil corn crop and higher US corn exports for both 20/21 and 21/22. Most analyst did not drop US soybean crush and Census data suggest final US soybean exports up 45.
Range of analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout 850-1,040 vs USDA 1,107. Soya 55-137 vs USDA 135. Range of analyst est US 21/22 corn carryout 700-1,536 vs USDA 1,357. Soya 50-157 vs USDA 155.
Lack of new China buying US new crop corn and soybeans is offering resistance to futures and basis.
Most look for weekly US corn and soybean ratings to drop 3-5 pct. Crop stress noted in US NW Midwest. 31 pct of US Midwest is in drought stress. 64 pct Iowa and 83 pct Minnesota. Quick look and EC IL, WC IN, KY, TN and GA noted above average crop ratings.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; 15,000 corn; 15,000 soybeans; 25,000 soyoil and bought 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 7,000 SRW wheat long 292,000 corn, 147,000 soybeans, 9,000 soymeal and 82,000 soyoil.
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