Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SH is unch and near 14.07. SMH is near 391.9 BOH is near 62.84. CH is down 2 cents and near 6.18. WH is down 13 cents and near 8.05. KWH is down 12 cents and near 8.22. MWH is down 14 cents and near 9.33.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
IMF lowered World 2021 GDP growth to 4.4 pct vs 5.9 in 2021. US down 1.2 to 4.0. IMF lowered US the most due to higher inflation. NW Chicago suburb grocery bill up 50 pct.
Ukraine Defense Minister said invasion is not imminent. Putin will be at China Olympics Feb 4. In 2014 Sochi Olympics there was no Russia invasion until after Olympics Russia invaded Feb 27.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn are higher. China New Year next week. Paraguay, S Brazil, N Argentina warm and dry. Rain on SC Brazil. La Nina returns Feb-March.
Along with corn and wheat, Ukraine exports 15 pct of World canola and 50 pct sunoil. Brazil and Argentina farmer selling slow. Brazil vessel loading delayed 30 days.
US soybean export prices competitive April forward. Brazil soybean crop below 130 mmt? SH near 14.05. Prices on hold for confirmation of lower SA supplies and higher US exports.
South America weather/corn supplies, Black Sea exports, China import margins key to corn. Dalian corn futures at new highs and near $11.16. Brazil domestic corn price $7.80. CH near 6.18. US farmer selling old crop. CH-CK saw heavy rolling. Cash strong. Exports up. Canada cattle feeders running low on corn. Logistics and weather slowing corn movement. One Canada cattle feeder has only 5-7 days corn supply. “Excuses do not feed cattle.”
Funds have covered their 50,000 Chicago wheat short. WH up 94 cents in 6 trading days.
Most of the wheat rally due to concern over Black Sea exports. Some profit taking overnight. US south plains still dry. Forecast is dry. USDA HRW crop ratings down and below last year. Matif wheat futures near 4 week high. EU wheat exports 32 mmt vs USDA 37.5.
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