Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. SN is near 14.78. SU is down 27 cents and near 13.20. SX is near 13.12. SMU is near 409.2. BOU is near 54.33. CN is near 6.47. CU is down 21 cents and near 5.95. CZ is near 5.99. WU is down 14 cents and near 7.38. KWU is down 11 cents and near 8.61. MWU is down 6 cents and near 8.78. US stocks are lower. US dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. China is on holiday. World Central Banks raising rates to fight inflation which could put economies into recession
Talk of rains across parts of the US Midwest next week has triggered long liquidation. GFS model has rains in the 10 the day. EU model has rains in IA and IL mid week next week. 57 pct of the US soybean area is in drought. 83 pct of IA and 82 pct of Il are in drought. Some debate if potential drop in US crop offset lower demand for US exports. Weekly old crop US sales are estimated near 100-600 mt vs 478 last week. New crop sales are estimated near 0-300 mt vs 48 last week. Brazil export prices remain below US.
Talk of rains across parts of the US Midwest next week has triggered long liquidation. GFS model has rains in the 10 the day. EU model has rains in IA and IL mid week next week. 64 pct of the US corn area is in drought. 83 pct of IA and 82 pct of Il are in drought. Some debate if potential drop in US crop offset lower demand for US exports. Weekly old crop US sales are estimated near 0-600 mt vs 272 last week. New crop sales are estimated near 0-200 mt vs 21 last week. Brazil export prices remain below US.
Wheat futures are also on the defensive. Russia export prices are bellow US, French and Germany, Canada is dry but forecast calls for rain. EU is seeing rain. Ukraine and Australia is seeing rain. Argentina and Russia spring wheat area are dry. Talk of lower consumer demand, slower World economies offset and lower Russia wheat prices offers resistance. Lower corn prices also offers resistance. Despite lower crop, India domestic wheat prices are high and limits imports for now.
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