Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 2 cents and near 14.06. SMH is near 392.6. BOH is near 62.61. CH is unch and near 6.21. WH is up 11 cents and near 8.11. KWH is up 10 cents and near 8.28. MWH is up 6 cents and near 9.55.
US stocks are lower. Yesterday’s volatility may just be beginning. US equites are watching Covid impact on supply chain, earnings and food and fuel demand. US equites also watching US Central Bank policy. Fed handcuffed with goal to fight inflation versus concern over long term slowing economy and volatile equity market. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Silver and copper are lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
EU and US are unified against Russia invasion of Ukraine. Markets uncertain of final outcome. Uncertainty adds to markets volatility with some exiting positions. China Yuan 4 Year high.
Dalian soybean and corn higher, SBM, palmoil soyoil lower. China soymeal trade slow.
US soybean exports down 24 pct vs ly. USDA goal down 9 pct. US competitive June forward.
Brazil soybean yields lower than expected. Most crop est near 130 vs USDA 139. Few 125. Despite rains, Argentina still estimates 42 pct of crop area in drought. SB crop 43 mmt. SH is near 14.06. Lower South America supplies supportive. 14.29 resistance then 14.50.
US corn exports down 13 pct vs ly. US competitive. Ukraine still needs to export 17-19 mmt. Brazil corn yields lower than expected. Most crop est near 112 vs USDA 115. Second crop key.
Despite rains, Argentina still estimates 42 pct of crop area in drought. Corn crop 51 mmt. Matif corn futures at 8 week high. EU needs 6-7 mmt imports. Russia Ukraine exports in doubt. CH is near 6.21. Lower South America supplies supportive. 6.40 resistance then 6.80.
Wheat futures still adding geopolitical premium. WH near 8.11. KWH near 8.28. 8.50 key. US wheat exports down 18 pct vs ly. USDA goal is down 17 pct. Ukraine needs to export 7 mmt. US winter wheat crop ratings down. KS 30 G/E vs 33 Jan 3 and 43 ly. OK 16/02/61. NE 36/39/34. Australia wheat futures new 2022 highs. USDA est exports 25 mmt. Export capacity sold out.
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