Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SN is down 13 cents and near 13.24. SMN is near 398.0. BON is near 48.17. CN is unch and near 6.04. WN is down 6 cents and near 6.09. KWN is down 15 cents and near 8.03. MWN is down 9 cents and near 8.08. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower and near $71. Gold made new lows for the move on increasing drop in open interest. White House and GOP Speaker of the House compromised on a debt ceiling deal. Congress now needs to pass the deal.
US Midwest 8-14 day forecast increased chances for rain in west Midwest. A new GFS model suggest rains in the Midwest week 3. Most crop watchers are still using a US 2023 soybean yield near 52.0. Large Brazil soybean supplies, slower China soybean import demand for US soybeans, global poultry and pork diseases, and increase in alternative oilseed meals offers resistance to soymeal futures. Last week, China bought 8-10 Brazil July soybean cargoes, 1-2 Brazil Feb and 4-6 US Oct soybean cargoes. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Domestic China soymeal prices were sharply lower.
CN is trading over 6.00 but barely. US ethanol margins remain positive. Most crop watchers are still using a US 2023 corn yield near 180.0. There appears to be more competition for US corn exports with higher Brazil crop and higher Argentina and Ukraine 2024 crops. Brazil 2024 crop could also be higher. Brazil safrina drop harvest is just beginning. Some feel if there is a storage shortage, Brazil farmers could sell corn and store soybeans.
Wheat futures are lower. Choppy wheat trade continues and hard to trade for both bulls and bears. WN and KWN is back near 6.00 and 8.00 support respectfully. N Europe and Russia spring wheat areas remain dry. Canada prairies and US HRS areas temps are above normal. Erdogen won another 5 year term. Turkish Lira dropped to new lows. This weighed on EU wheat prices. Russia continues to suggest the Ukraine export corridor deal will not be extended if sanctions continue.
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