Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 2 cents and near 13.14. SMH is near 423.2. BOH is near 42.37. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.98. WH is up 1 cent and near 6.35. KWH is up 1 cent and near 6.14. Last week fund selling appears to have stopped. US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is mixed to higher. Crude is higher, Gold and copper are higher.
Soybean, soymeal soyoil and wheat futures are trying to find support after last weeks losses.
Parts of north Brazil and central Argentina corn and soybean areas saw only 35 pct of normal rains last 30 days. Some look for Brazil soybean crop near 128 mmt vs USDA 133. Feb/Mar soybean exports 10.5 mmt vs 15.6 ly.
Trade estimates that US corn exports will be 250-300 mil bu above USDA. US Carryout near 1,100
Trade could also see US 2020/21 ethanol use 5,075 (+125)and FSI 5,775 (125)
Trade could see US 2021/21 corn acres near 93.0, crop 15,390, total use 15,300, carryout 1,215
Trade estimates that US soybean exports be 150-225 mil bu above USDA. Negative US carryout?
Trade could see US 2021/21 soybean acres near 90.0, crop 4,550, total use 4,535, carryout 130
Trade could see US 2020/21 soyoil exports 2,900 vs USDA 2,750. End stocks 1,700 vs USDA 1,814.
Trade could see US 2020/21 soymeal use near 52,650 tst vs USDA 52,500. End stocks 325 vs USDA 350
Trade could also see US 2021/22 soymeal use near 52,500 tst. End stocks 275
Trade could see US 2020/21 wheat exports at 995 vs USDA 985. 2021 crop 1,860, use 2,075, carryout 735
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 20,000 SRW Wheat; 42,000 Corn; 35,000 Soybeans; 12,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net 10,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 304,000 Corn; net long 109,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 91,000 Soyoil.
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