Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 22 cents and near 13.82. Last weeks high was 14.55. SMU is near 407.8. Last weeks high was 418.0. BOU is near 60.49. Last weeks high was 63.56. CU is up 9 cents and near 6.13. Last weeks high was 6.67. WU is up 15 cents and near 7.92. KWU is up 9 cents and near 8.47. Last weeks high was 9.40. MWU is up 11 cents and near 9.18. Last weeks high was 10.44.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Bitcoin is sharply higher. US Dollar is lower. Key support is near 106. What if inflation has peaked and US Central Bank may not need to raise rates as high as feared? GSI commodity index resistance is near 700. There remains concern about China commodity import demand as covid lockdowns spread.
Ukraine war continues. Talk that Russia could soon except a deal to allow for Ukraine grain exports may be in doubt after Russia bombed Ukraine capital, Russia escalated war in Ukraine east and Russia burning Ukraine wheat fields. World supplies of corn, wheat and sunoil remain tight if Ukraine export do not resume. US 2 week Midwest weather forecast is warm and dry. Weekly US corn and soybean crop ratings could increase this week in north and east sates but drop in SW cornbelt and Delta. EU weather is also mostly warm and dry. This raises talk of lower corn crop and higher corn imports. Some feel EU wheat export supplies may be sold out. This allowed last weeks US wheat export sales to be higher than expected.
SU resistance is 14.00-14.07, BOU 64 cents, SMU 420, CU 6.31 and WU all the way up to near 9.00. Grains futures may have made a bottom for now on tightening supplies and less than ideal US/EU summer weather. US cash corn, soybean and wheat basis remains strong due to lack of farmer selling and supply chain challenges.
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