Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grain calls are mixed. SF is near 14.36. SMF is near 407.4. BOF is near 72.20. CH is near 6.66. WH is near 8.13. KWH is near 9.19. MWH is near 9.52. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher.
Soybean futures could be higher on talk that China Central Bank is putting money into housing market and and cutting reserve requirements by 50 basis points. Strict China covid policy though could reduce import demand with record new cases. Argentina weather is dry. Soybean plantings have slowed and are est at 19 pct vs 40 average. Some look for Argentina to announce a new soya peso deal today. South Brazil is dry. 2nd week forecast is key. Matif rapeseed are down to 10 week lows. Canada canola is at 2 month lows. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures are higher. Weekly US soybean export saless are est near 500-1,700 mt vs 3,030 last week.
On Wednesday, corn futures bounced off key support. Drop in demand for US corn export offers resistance and offsets higher US domestic cash basis and lack of new farmer selling. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,700-2,500 mt vs 1,170 last week. Dalian corn futures are higher with domestic China corn prices record high. Matif corn prices are lowest since July. Reports suggest Avian flu has dropped US bird flock by record 50.5 million birds. Argentina corn is 24 pct planted vs 34 average with crop rated 12 pc G/E vs 81 ly. Brazil election protest is raising domestic truck freight. US logistics is hampered by low river water levels and possible RR strike. Ukraine has shipped only 5 grain vessels since Nov 19. Some report that Ukraine exporters are buying/using generators to keep grain flowing.
There is talk of increase chance for rain in US S plains across TX and OK. KS, CO and NE remain dry, Delta and SE rain. Argentina wheat crop is rated 8 pct G/E. Harvest is 13 pct vs 32 average. Crop is est near 12.8 mmt vs USDA 15.5 and 22.1 ly. Australia futures are lower with higher than expected yields in west and better quality in east. Dry weather should aid Harvest. Matif wheat futures are lowest since August. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine cities and infrastructure. Half of Ukraine are in the dark. Russia wheat export prices are still the lowest for buyers. Egypt bought Russia wheat. Iraq bought Australia and Canada wheat. Pakistan is tendering for soft wheat. Turkey is tendering for 455 mt wheat, probably Russian. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt vs 290 last week. Oil World est World July-Sep wheat exports at 45.2 mmt vs 50.7 ly. Russia 9.9 vs 11.0, EU 10.2 vs 9.5, US 7.1 vs 7.0, Australia 6.9 vs 5.3 and Ukraine 3.1 vs 8.9.
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