Gold Lower Despite Bullish Inflation Report

Precious Metals

Gold: Gold prices pared some earlier losses following the release of US inflation figures, but prices remained lower and profit-taking continued to weigh on the metal. September’s CPI inflation report, showed a smaller-than-expected rise in inflation. Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.0% from 2.9% in August on an annualized basis and below expectations of a rise to 3.1%. Core CPI rose 0.2% on the month, a slower pace than the previous two months, at 0.3%, landing the annualized core figure at 3.0%, below expectations of a rise to 3.1%. The data all but confirms that the Fed will move to cut rates by 25 bps at its meeting next week, especially with the slight easing in core prices. Fed Funds futures show a 99% chance of a 25 bps rate cut next week, while odds of a 25 bps cut in December rose to 96.7%, up from 91.1% at this time yesterday. At the same time, bets on a jumbo 50 bps cut in December rose slightly to 2.2%, up from 0% at this time yesterday. Elsewhere, The White House confirmed on Thursday that President Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during his Asia trip, easing doubts about the meeting amid heightened trade tensions.

Gold prices rose on Thursday, recovering slightly from a sell off earlier in the week as renewed geopolitical risks brought on safe haven buying following the announcement of new US sanctions on Russia. The fundamental factors that have contributed to gold this year still remain in place, providing the metal with a solid price floor and ample room for price growth.

Silver: Silver held lower, following moves in gold. Silver remains nearly 10% below records recorded last week.

Platinum: Platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,593.

Base Metals

Copper: Copper prices lost steam in the US and at the LME, but are still set for a weekly rise amid renewed optimism on US-China trade talks and as supply worries help build a floor for prices. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 0.1% at $10,841. It had earlier rose 1.1% to $10,969, the highest since October 9, when it struck a 16-month peak of $11,000. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that tightness in the mined concentrates segment of the market will act as a hard brake on refined copper production growth in 2026. The ICSG has cut its 2025 mine supply forecasts, with growth now expected to be just 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.3% and actual growth of 2.8% in 2024. Meanwhile, analysts at Citi and UBS are forecasting negligible growth this year.

Chilean miner Antofagasta said it expects its 2025 copper output to come in at the lower end of its 660,000-700,000 tons forecast. Meanwhile, LME copper stocks were at their lowest since late July, at 136,350 tons, while copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange wareheouses fell 4.9% from last week to 104,792 tons.

Copper prices rose on Thursday on expectations that China will roll out a stimulus package aimed at expanding the country’s industrial production and domestic market, which could further fuel demand for copper and other metals from the world’s top metals consumer. The talks of stimulus come out of China’s five-year development plan meeting, where the full development plan will be released at a parliamentary meeting in March 2026.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan beat Wall Street estimate for third-quarter profit on Thursday, as higher copper prices helped counter lower production after operations were suspended at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. It forecast fourth-quarter copper sales at 635 million pounds, lower than what it had reported a year earlier, dragged down by the suspension. Freeport’s copper production stood at 912 million recoverable pounds during the third quarter, down 13.2% from a year earlier.

Zinc: Zinc edged up 0.1% to $3,019. New data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group on Thursday showed that the global zinc market climbed to a 47,900 ton surplus in August, up from 38,700 tons in July. The data also showed that the global refined zinc market, in the first eight months of 2025, showed a surplus of 154,000 tons, compared to a surplus of 138,000 tons during the same period last year.

Aluminum: Aluminum dipped 0.4% to $2,851 a ton, after touching $2,883.50, its highest since May 2022 on supply fears. South32 said on Thursday that its Mozal smelter in South Africa had failed to secure a suitable power agreement and that the operation was due to be suspended in March next year.

Tin: Tin climbed 0.1% to $35,815.

Lead: Lead gained 0.3% to $2,016. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study group showed that the lead market fell into a deficit of 2,500 tons in August from a surplus of 10,800 in July. During the first eight months of 2025, there was a 51,000 ton surplus of refined lead, compared to a deficit of 17,000 tons during the same period last year.

Nickel: Nickel fell 0.5% to $15,280.

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