Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are little changed, with April COMEX contracts down 0.23% at $5,122, as investors appear to favor dollar liquidity over traditional safe-haven assets amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. The metal is caught between competing forces.
On one hand, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for bullion. On the other, the risk of a prolonged surge in energy prices may reinforce inflation concerns and push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. That dynamic, and the possibility of renewed rate hikes if inflation reaccelerates, is likely capping upside in gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Firming bond yields and a renewed inflation impulse from surging energy prices and strong ISM PMI readings have also pushed back rate-cut expectations, removing near-term policy support for bullion. Markets have trimmed near-term easing expectations. The probability of a June rate cut continues to drop, now at 31%. Markets are no longer fully priced for a cut in September, though odds are favorable. Meanwhile, total easing for year-end has narrowed to about 37 bps, down from 46 on Wednesday and 53 bps last week, meaning two cuts are no longer fully priced for 2026. A drawn-out Middle East conflict would heighten upside risks to inflation, potentially delaying Fed easing if higher energy costs begin to spill over into core price dynamics.
That said, the broader fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, and macro uncertainty continue to underpin structural demand for bullion, suggesting the recent pullback reflects position adjustment rather than a material shift in underlying fundamentals. Friday’s jobs report will be scrutinized for whether the data alters expectations for the policy path following a strong report for January.
Silver: Silver futures are down 0.43% to $82.28
Platinum: Platinum is up 0.43% to $2,144.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME falling 1.1% to $12,913. A rise in warehouse inventories, weaker growth prospect from China, and the conflict in the Middle East have pressured the metal.
Copper inventories in U.S. warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange surged 44% after large inflows into storage facilities in New Orleans and Baltimore. Deliveries totaled 17,750 tons into New Orleans and 3,025 tons into Baltimore, lifting US LME stocks to 68,050 tons — the highest level since January 2024. The increase reflects a pricing dynamic between exchanges. LME copper currently trades at a premium to COMEX prices, incentivizing traders to move metal into LME storage locations. As a result, US inventories now account for roughly 24% of total copper held in the LME warehousing network, the largest share since April 2024.
Globally, LME copper inventories have risen to 282,200 tons, their highest level since October 2024, signaling a gradual rebuilding of available supply. Meanwhile, the large build in COMEX inventories seen last year, driven by concerns about potential US import tariffs, has stabilized, with stocks hovering around 545,000 tons.
China signaled that its economy is entering an era of slower expansion, after setting a target for GDP growth of between 4.5% – 5% this year to mark the lowest target since the 1990s. If China’s economy were to expand at a pace below 5% in 2026, it would be the slowest growth reported by the country in more than three decades, other than during the Covid-19 pandemic years.
The projection comes after mixed factory data out of the country, with the official PMI index tracking state-owned manufacturers coming in slightly weaker than expectations. The reading fell to 49.0 in February from 49.3 in January, a 4-month low and under forecasts for a reading of 49.1. Weak domestic demand pressured the figure despite a recovery in exports from private sector firms. However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.1 in February from 50.3 previously. Averaging out both figures, the headline reading picked up from 49.8 to a five-month high of 50.5.
Zinc: Zinc slipped 1.2% to $3,286.
Aluminum: Aluminum prices pulled back after rising for three-straight sessions. Aluminum was down 1.3% to $3,300. Force majeures from Mideast smelters Qatalum and Aluminum Bahrain have heightened supply fears. The Gulf region produced 8% of the world’s aluminum last year. The shutdown of Qatari smelter Qatalum is expected to be completed by the end of March and could take six-to-twelve months to restart.
Aluminum stocks in the LME-registered warehouses fell to 459,125 tons, the lowest since July last year, after 2,000 tons of outflows from Port Klang. There was an order to remove more than 45,000 tons from the Malaysian storage location earlier this week, suggesting traders are looking to cash in on supply shortages. The cash LME aluminum contract was trading at only a $1 a ton premium to the three-month forward, down from around $4 on Wednesday.
Tin: Tin slid 2.3% to $49,850. Tin has recently been pressured by reports that Myanmar’s Wa region is taking steps towards the gradual restart of mining operations.
Lead: Lead lost 0.8% to $1,947.
Nickel: Nickel shed 1% to $17,310. Indonesia’s nickel miners association said the government allotted a nickel ore output quota of 260 million tons for 2026. There will be an opportunity to propose a revision on the quota, it added.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
