Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices are higher, supported by a weaker dollar, and are hovering near the $4,000 level following a wave of profit-taking yesterday. Gains in gold this week have come from broad political and economic uncertainty and expectations that the Fed will move to cut rates at its meeting later this month. September’s Fed meeting minutes showed that a majority of members support additional easing through the remainder of the year. However, a majority of members noted that upside risks to inflation remain elevated, although the board felt it was necessary to lower interest rates to help accommodate the labor market. Comments from several Fed officials this week have indicated that there may be a greater divide at the Fed over the outlook on interest rates than initially thought. New York Fed President Williams offered very dovish comments in an interview on Thursday, while Fed Governor Barr highlighted upside risks to inflation that warrant caution from the Fed. Still, Fed Funds futures are currently pricing a 94.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in October, while December odds of a 25 bps cut are at 83.4%.
Strong central bank and ETF demand also remain supportive of gold prices; global gold ETFs saw their third consecutive month of inflows in August per recent data from the World Gold Council. AUM by ETFs rose to their highest level since July 2022 and just 6% shy of record level. China’s central bank increased its gold holdings for an 11th straight month in September, while continued purchases by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and the Czech Republic also provide a solid floor for prices. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its December 2026 price forecast to $4,900 an ounce from $4,300.
Silver: Silver futures are 2% higher, although they remain below the $50 level, which was broken on Thursday. Silver has gained more than 73% this year, benefiting from similar fundamentals as gold. Interestingly, net long positions in silver remain marginally higher, suggesting the rally is not built on speculative interest. Silver continues to gain underlying support from a structural supply-demand deficit, while a shortage of available silver in the LME market also lifted prices.
Platinum: Platinum futures rose 0.7% to $1,668.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices on the LME eased earlier this morning on a wave of profit-taking following a strong rally over the last week over supply concerns. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange eased 0.9% to $10,765 a ton. Meanwhile, US copper futures are up over 0.5% to $5.15 a pound. Copper production from Chile’s Codelco fell 25% in August, per data released on Thursday, after a deadly mine collapse led to a shutdown in operations at its El Tiente mine. The miner has estimated that the collapse dented output by around 33,000 metric tons. As a whole, Chile’s copper output dropped almost 10% on a yearly basis in August. Elsewhere, Canadian miner Teck Resources on Wednesday cut its copper production forecast from 210,000–230,000 tons to 170,000–190,000. The Yangshan copper premium was steady at $49 a ton, its lowest since August 19, while the discount of the LME cash price to three-month copper narrowed to $26 a ton from $57 a month ago.
Operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remain suspended. Freeport-McMoRan slashed its 2026 sales guidance by 35% following the suspension. Freeport-McMoRan indicated that full production is unlikely to resume until early 2027. Disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo are also expected to remain.
Following several mine disruptions, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now expects a surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in the global refined copper market for 2025, down from an April forecast of 289,000 tons. The ICSG also expects a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026. It had previously expected an oversupply of 209,000 tons in 2026. Meanwhile, refined copper usage is predicted to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Refined copper production is forecast to rise by 3.4% in 2025 but slow to 0.9% growth in 2026, the group said.
Zinc: Zinc rose 0.4% to $3,022.5.
Aluminum: Aluminum fell 0.4% to $2,786.5.
Tin: Tin dropped 1.4% to $36,550.
Lead: Lead was 0.8% lower at $2,013. LME daily data shows that 118,000 tons of the metal are marked as being prepared for delivery out of LME-registered warehouses, taking cancelled stocks to 70% of the total.
Nickel: Nickel was down 0.9% to $15,350.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
