Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold moved higher, with prices breaking above $3,900, an all-time high, despite a stronger dollar, as political uncertainty in France and the prospect of a drawn-out US government shutdown led to safe haven buying. The US Senate failed to pass a plan to extend federal funding on Friday, while President Trump threatened to fire thousands of federal workers if he feels negotiations are going nowhere, per the White House on Sunday. Prolonged uncertainty surrounding the shutdown in Washington could continue to fuel investor appetite for gold.
Expectations of interest rate cuts out of the Fed have also provided a tailwind for gold prices. Markets are currently pricing a 95.7% chance of a 25 bps cut in October and an 84.1% chance of a following cut in December. Focus will also center around the Fed’s September meeting minutes out on Wednesday. Investors will scrutinize opinions regarding the risks to employment and inflation and any signals on how interest rates will move at the Fed’s meeting later this month and in December.
Silver: Silver futures are higher, with silver prices breaking more than 14 ½-year highs. December contracts are currently trading above $48.
Platinum: Platinum futures are trading above $1,624, its highest level in over 12 years, as safe-haven buying helped support demand amid ongoing supply constraints. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects persistent annual supply deficits through 2029, averaging roughly 620,000 ounces, or about 8% of global demand.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices slipped on Monday, as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Benchmark copper on the LME fell 0.7% to $10,636 a ton earlier this morning. The absence of the Chinese market due to the holiday in China may have contributed to gold’s rally last week. Despite the drop in prices, supply worries are still relevant with operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remaining suspended following a deadly mudslide. Freeport-McMoRan slashed its 2026 sales guidance by 35% following the suspension.
Supply disruptions also arising out of the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile’s El Teniente mine are expected to remain. Chile’s copper output dropped almost 10% on a yearly basis in August. The copper market remains in a modest surplus, which is expected to be maintained in 2026 despite the recent mining disruptions.
Zinc: Zinc lost 0.5% to $3,018.
Aluminum: Aluminum gained 0.2% to $2,715.
Tin: Tin fell 2.2% to $36,625.
Lead: Lead was down 0.5% at $2,009. Lead stored in LME-registered warehouses showed that more than 30,000 tons of lead could leave the system per cancelled warrants or metal earmarked for delivery.
Nickel: Nickel lost 0.5% to $15,350.
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