Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
CATTLE COMPLEX
December live cattle on November 12, 2025 closed 3.39 under the 5 day average negotiated cash steer price. Beef prices are going to depend on the need for the leaner beef from the southwest now through the end of the year and what choice cattle packers need to fill seasonal demand.
LEAN HOG COMPLEX
It is easy to see why lean hog futures are coming down. Both cash hogs and cash pork prices have been slowly and steadily dropping and there is a good reason why. Global hog production is too much. China that raises about half of the global hog production has too many hogs and pork and has told producers to breed less sows. The amount 1,000,000 sows would close to a third of the hogs the US produces. Brazil expanded in order to make up losses China had during ASF and now with China having too much pork, Brazil has to export pork to more countries to make up lost sales to China. Spain has expanded and was a major supplier to China but China having too much pork claims Spain is dumping pork and Spain claims China is dumping electronic cars and Spain has to sell more pork to global countries like Mexico. At this time there is simply too much pork.
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