Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 38th day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Global food prices fell in October, driven by lower prices for meat, dairy and sugar, the FAO of the United Nations reported.
CFTC report delayed due to government shutdown. USDA announced they will release a crop report on November 14, even it shutdown continues.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.10. SX deliveries were 36. ADM stopped 22.There were rumors China COFCO washed out US and Brazil soybean sales. China October soybean imports were record with none from US. On Nov 14 some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. SMF traded back below 400 DMA. Appears there will be no Argentina oilseed workers strike. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Dalian vegoil are near recent lows. No US export sales data but trade est commit near 17.6 mmt or down 35 percent vs ly and USDA est of down 10.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. Corn futures following soybeans. No export sales but trade est total commit near 35 mmt or up 22 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 4. Argentina farmers not selling given uncertain economic landscape. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Brazil October corn exports were 6.5 mmt and above last year. Argentina crop rated 79 pct G/E versus 29 ly. Most look for US corn yield near 183 vs StoneX 186 and S/P Global 185.5. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Dalian corn futures were higher and 7 week high close.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.46. KWH is near 5.33. MWH is near 5.73. Wheat futures dropped following soybeans. Recent rally in wheat futures has made US wheat exports less competitive. No US sales but trade trade st total commit near 17 mmt or up 19 pct vs ly and USDA est pf up 5. Matif futures followed US futures lower. Argentina est wheat harvest near 12 pct with talk of record yields.
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