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Global Bond Yields Decline


Futures are steady to higher as government bond yields around the world fell for a third day with the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield falling to 3.74%. Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaigns.

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The Treasury will auction 20-year bonds today.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers today with the Federal Reserve in a blackout period.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the July 26 meeting

Next week’s likely interest rate increase from the FOMC is probably going to be the last one in this cycle.


Stock index futures are mixed to higher today as traders continue to focus on corporate earnings results.

Yesterday S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures advanced to new highs for the year.

Dow Jones futures are higher today for an eighth straight day of gains.

Housing starts in June were 1.434 million when 1.480 million were expected, and building permits were 1.440 million, which compares to the anticipated 1.483 million.

In spite of recent price gains, many analysts continue to lean to the bearish side, which from a contrarian point of view suggests higher prices, at least in the short term.


The U.S. dollar index is higher today but has been weak recently due to the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon end its tightening cycle, with a hike in July increasingly seen as the last one. Last Friday the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since April 2022.

The consumer price inflation rate in the euro area was 5.5% in June 2023, which is the lowest level since January 2022. However, the core rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, increased to 5.5%, and is above a preliminary estimate of 5.4%.

European Central Bank policymakers are likely to continue hiking interest rates in the coming months.

U.K. annual consumer price inflation declined to a lower-than-expected 7.9% in June, which is the lowest level since March 2022, while the core rate fell to 6.9%, but remains close to the near the three-decade high of 7.1% that was recorded in May.  


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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