Global Ag News Headlines
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—USDA MONTHLY S/D STATS
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat unchanged, Corn is unchanged; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 6 yuan in soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 10 in Soymeal, down 72 in Soyoil, and down 120 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 10 ringgit at 2,633 (basis October) at midsession on weaker rival oils.
U.S. Weather Forecast:
Last evening’s GFS model run was similar to the midday GFS model in showing a relatively strong trough of low pressure dig down into the Great Lakes region Aug. 18 – 21 causing notably below average temperatures across the Corn Belt, Delta, and part of the southeastern states. This cool air mass will then gradually diminish after Aug. 21.
The 11 to 16 day for the Midwest has below average precip and temps by both models with the GFS model by the end of the period turning more towards ridging which would provide above average temps and limited rains.
The U.S. Southern Plains over the next 6 to 10 days have models mixed with the European dry while the GFS has light rains to fall over the region; temps above average in the west and average in the east.
The Delta over the next 6 to 10 days has limited rainfall.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 4,000 Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 167,000 Corn; net long 40,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 44,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 8,400; Corn down 31,500; Soybeans down 65 contracts; Soymeal up 905 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,200.
Deliveries were 182 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,608 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 11; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 120,000t Russian wheat—Syria seeks 200,000t EU/Black Sea wheat—
Monday’s Derecho storm potentially impacted some 10 million acres (4 million hectares) of Iowa farmland and millions of bushels of grain storage in the top U.S. corn growing state, Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said; early estimates show that tens of millions of bushels worth of commercial grain storage – as well as millions of bushels of on-farm storage bins owned by producers – were either impacted, destroyed or severely damaged by the storm.
U.S. farmers impacted by the economic shutdown as the coronavirus hammered the global economy have more time to apply for aid from the federal government; the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday it is extending the deadline to apply for direct payments through the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program to Sept. 11.
China is continuing to buy U.S. goods, particularly commodities, under its Phase 1 trade deal with the United States, despite rising tensions over Hong Kong and other issues, top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said;
Wire story reported the U.S. Department of Agriculture will publish a slew of data on Wednesday, but the first number market participants will seek is U.S. corn yield followed closely by soybean yield, and those outcomes can have huge ramifications on futures; Chicago corn and soybean prices have not had a solidly bullish reaction on USDA’s August report day since 2013, and the past three years have been downright bearish, especially for corn; but corn futures have spent most of the 2020 U.S. growing season at 14-year lows as huge stockpiles loom, and commodity funds are holding their largest-ever short position in the yellow grain for the month of August; this could prevent extreme selling should the estimates come in heavier than expected; the market is already braced for huge yields when USDA publishes its data at noon EDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday, and they are almost never wrong with that assumption in August.
North America’s regulations for handling ammonium nitrate, a potentially explosive product used in fertilizer and in the mining industry, are the strictest in the world, the chief executive officer of Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd said.
Manitoba crop report – Reuters News
Winter cereal harvest is ongoing, with pre-harvest applications occurring in the Southwest and Northwest regions, pre-harvest applications on spring wheat in full swing in Interlake, Central and Eastern regions Rapid growth and development of all crops over the past two weeks, encouraged by warm, sunny weather; many parts of the province would benefit from a gentle rain to help with grain formation in corn, sunflowers, and soybeans.
Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for total corn production for the 2019-2020 growing season as farmers boosted productivity with greater investment in fertilizers and other products; Brazilian farmers are expected to produce a record 102.1 million metric tons of corn this season; in July, Conab forecast a crop of 100.6 million tons; Brazil produced a record 100.04 million tons of corn in the 2018-2019 season
Argentina’s soon-to-be planted 2020/21 corn crop should reach about 6.3 million hectares, similar to the area of the recently harvested crop, thanks to attractive prices, local growers and analysts said; Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter, with output of about 50 million tons in the 2019/20 crop year, just 600,000 tons off its all-time record high season, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
More than a hundred barges with 115,000 tons of Paraguayan grains began to sail to ports in the region on Tuesday, thanks to a discharge of water from the Itaipu and Yacyreta dams that raised the height of the Parana River, the government said; the Parana is the region’s key commodities superhighway used to send soy and other farm products to export hubs; but the waterway has suffered unusually low water levels in 2020 due to dryness in Paraguay, southern Brazil and Argentina.
Ukraine grain traders union UGA lowered its forecast for the corn harvest in 2020 to 36.4 million tons from a previous estimate of 38.9 million tons; the union also cut its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2020/21 season to 31 million tons from 33 million tons a month earlier.
Ukraine, the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, is likely to increase its 2020 sunflower seed harvest to 16 million tons from 15.3 million in 2019, sunoil producers association Ukroliyaprom said; it said that would allow sunoil output to increase to 7 million tons and exports to 6.6 million tons in the 2020/21 September-August season.
Focus is on Australia’s developing winter crop including wheat after the European harvest was impacted by drought, says Rabobank; so who can offset that shortfall in European production that would be going into export markets; everyone is banking on Australia to make that happen on the world market because no one else has a whole lot of buffer to make that up; EU wheat export volumes are set to fall at least 10 million metric tons with most European grain-growing nations–including France, Germany, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria–beset by dry conditions and poor yields.
The European Union has re-introduced an import duty for maize (corn), setting a levy of 5.48 euros ($6.42) per ton, the bloc announced in its official journal; the tariff, effective as of Wednesday, will also apply to rye and sorghum imports; the bloc in late April imposed an import duty after a slump in U.S. prices to a 10-year low linked to the coronavirus pandemic, ending an extended period of zero tariffs; the bloc then raised the levy to as much as 10.40 euros before reducing it in stages back to zero as maize prices rebounded
Euronext wheat edged higher on Tuesday, consolidating above a six-week low with support from Chicago futures as the market awaits direction from widely followed U.S. government crop forecasts; front-month September milling wheat was up 1 euro, or 0.6%, at 178 euros ($209.40) a ton; it earlier touched Monday’s six-week low of 176.75 euros.
Indonesia palm oil exports and production in the first half of the year fell compared to the same period a year earlier, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said; Indonesia saw output at 23.5 million tons for January-June, down 8.9% compared to the year-earlier period; GAPKI also reported palm oil exports in the first half of the year fell 11.7% to 15.5 million tons, from 17.55 million tons over the same six months of 2019.
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