Global Ag News Headlines
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 2, Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 53 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, down 36 in Soymeal, down 84 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 20 ringgit at 2,748 (basis October) at midsession on weaker rival vegoil markets.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has large differences between the models for Iowa and Minnesota; The GFS sees moderate rain fall for western Minnesota with eastern Minnesota dry along with Iowa; the European model has light rainfall for the two states; both models show rainfall in most areas west of the Mississippi River; temps are seen below average for the rest of this week then, warming to above average by the weekend into the first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has models in agreement with average to a bit below average rainfall and average to a bit above average temps but, nothing extreme.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 32,000 Corn; sold 12,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 183,000 Corn; net long 58,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 53,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,300 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,200; Corn up 24,700; Soybeans up 9,800 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 18.
Deliveries were 219 Soymeal; 142 Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil up 21; Rice down 163)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,719 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 11; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korean feed groups bought 69,000t optional-origin corn, seek 69,000 optional-origin corn—S. Korea seeks 13,000t Indian rapeseed meal—Egypt seeks optional-origin soyoil, sunoil—
Wire story has the corn supply outlook in the United States got much tighter when it was revealed that farmers this year significantly reduced planted acres from their original plan, but unprecedented yields could load back up the balance sheet; the U.S. Department of Agriculture will unveil its first survey-based yield outlook next Wednesday, and many analysts believe the agency’s August estimate will land above 180 bushels per acre (bpa) for the first time ever; corn bulls were relieved when USDA’s June survey showed 5 million fewer planted corn acres than in March, bringing next year’s domestic ending stocks well below 3 billion bushels; but inventory estimates may jump again as largely ideal growing conditions should lead to a larger U.S. corn harvest than was initially expected.
The U.S. and China have agreed to high-level talks on Aug. 15 to assess Beijing’s compliance with the bilateral trade agreement signed early this year; the trade pact has emerged as one of the few remaining avenues for the two countries to engage on matters of mutual concern; relations have deteriorated in recent months, with the Trump administration hammering Beijing over the coronavirus outbreak, Hong Kong and the treatment of Uighurs in western China; U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, President Xi Jinping’s point man on economic policies, will participate in the talks, likely via videoconference; the focus will be on the so-called phase-one deal, which includes China’s commitment to boost its U.S. imports by $200 billion over two years; so far, China has fallen well short of the pace needed to reach the target, even though it has increased purchases of American soybeans, pork, corn and other farm products in recent months.
The U.S. Department of Energy has finished reviewing retroactive requests from refiners for exemptions from the nation’s biofuel blending laws and has sent recommendations on how to address those requests to the Environmental Protection Agency, Senator Chuck Grassley said; the EPA now has 90 days to review the recommendations; the agency will consider 58 pending requests for compliance years 2011 through 2018, EPA data showed; under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), oil refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel, or buy credits from those that do. Small refiners that prove the rules would financially harm them can apply for exemptions; the EPA is in charge of granting exemptions, after the Energy Department reviews applications and makes recommendations.
The U.S. Department of Energy has recommended that some of the oil refiners that applied for retroactive exemptions from the nation’s biofuel blending law be granted partial relief; the move could help bring those refining companies into compliance with a court ruling earlier this year that requires waivers granted since 2010 to take the form of an extension – the latest twist in a long-running battle between the refining and biofuel industries over the program.
Manitoba crop report – Reuters News
Harvest has started in fall rye in all areas except the Northwest; with some winter wheat and pea fields combined in the Interlake region; rapid growth and development of all crops over the past two weeks, encouraged by warm, sunny weather; many parts of the province would benefit from a gentle rain to help with grain formation in corn, sunflowers, and soybeans.
Brazilian soy production will hit a record 132.6 million tons next season, as demand from China remains strong and farmers intend to expand acreage, according to a forecast from agribusiness consultancy StoneX
Brazil will export 6.72 million tons of soybeans and 6.32 million tons of corn in August, according to the country’s National Grains Exporter Association (ANEC) in its first estimate for the month; that would be a 33% increase for soybeans over the same month last year
Wire story reports wheat traders caught short by rally in Black Sea prices
Russia has harvested 61.0 million tons of grain before drying and cleaning from 36.5% of the area with an average yield of 3.49 tons per hectare, data from the agriculture ministry showed
Romania is expected to reap a meagre 5.5-5.6 million tons of wheat this year, a 42% drop on the year due to an extreme drought, with average yields falling sharply
France’s farm ministry on Wednesday lowered its estimate of this year’s soft wheat harvest to 29.71 million tons from an initial forecast of 31.31 million last month; that was 24.9% below last year’s bumper harvest and also 15.9% lower than the average of the past five years, the ministry said in a crop report, reiterating that heavy autumn rain and spring drought severely affected wheat crops.
French soft wheat shipments outside the EU fell to their lowest in at least a decade for July as activity eased after a record 2019/20 season, with wheat volumes lagging brisk barley exports to China; soft wheat exports to destinations outside the European Union totaled 432,000 tons in July, the first month of the 2020/21 season; the volume was about 216,000 tons lower than non-EU soft wheat exports in July last season, and the lowest July volume in Refinitiv data going back to 2009/10.
Germany’s 2020 wheat crop could fall about 12% year on year to about 20.23 million tons, the statistics office said in a harvest estimate; the estimate was based on data gathered in late June and is well below the 22.46 million tons forecast for the 2020 wheat crop by Germany’s farm cooperative association in July after rain improved the harvest outlook.
European wheat futures fell to a one-month low on Tuesday as increasing expectations for Russia’s harvest countered support from a disappointing crop and slow farmer selling in France; front-month September milling wheat settled down 0.50 euro, or 0.3%, at 179.75 euros ($211.55) a ton; it earlier fell to 179.25 euros, its lowest since June 30, adding to steeper losses on Monday; the more active December contract also struck a one-month low at 179.50 euros, before settling 0.3% lower at 180.25 euros.
PREVIEW-Malaysia July-end palm oil stocks expected to hit 3-year low – Reuters News
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