Written Commentary
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 47 ringgit at 2,778 (basis October) at midsession tracking rival vegoils.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has large differences between the models; both the European and GFS models have rains across the region depending on location; temps are seen below average for the rest of this week then, warming to above average by the weekend into next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is also mixed in the models with the European brining in ridging with hot and dry conditions, the GFS with average to below average rainfall for the region and average to a bit below average temps.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 5,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; short 151,000 Corn; net long 70,000 Soybeans; net short 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 54,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,300; Corn down 8,300; Soybeans up 2,700 contracts; Soymeal up 3,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 6,700.
Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 2)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,698 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Thailand seeks optional-origin feed wheat—
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 85% versus 81% last week, 80% a year ago, 88% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 5% versus 1% last week, 2% a year ago, 10% average.
Corn doughing was 39% versus 22% a week ago, 20 last year, and 33% average.
U.S. Oats harvested was 49% versus 32% a week ago, 29% last year, and 43% average.
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 59% versus 43% a week ago, 32% last year, and 54% average.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running up 9% ahead of a year ago (up 8% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 16% behind a year ago (16% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 5% on the year (down 4% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
The June U.S. Soybean crush was 177 mil bu versus 180 a month ago and 158 last year
—Soyoil stocks were 2.270 bil lbs versus 2.446 bil last month and 2.014 bil a year ago
—Soymeal stocks 420,000t (442,000t last month), 376,000t a year ago
U.S. corn use for fuel alcohol for the month of June was 379 mil bu versus 300 mil a month ago, and 456 mil last year.
—DDGS production was 1.664 MT versus 1.234 mt a year ago, and 1.960 mt last year
Shares of Tyson Foods Inc. rose nearly 1% in Monday premarket trading after the meat producer reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations; net income totaled $527 million, or $1.44 per share, down from $676 million, or $1.84 per share, last year.
China’s long-awaited live hog futures contract is almost ready, offering a vital hedging tool for the world’s largest pork industry, which has been roiled by an African swine fever outbreak that devastated herds and sent pork prices soaring; the country’s first live-animal physical-delivery contract has been planned for a decade, and is expected to be popular with domestic traders on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA on Tuesday increased Ukraine’s 2020 corn harvest forecast to 38.9 million tons from 36.8 million tons.
UGA also said that corn exports are likely to rise to 33 million tons in the 2020/21 season, from 30.3 million the previous season.
The union’s estimates for the 2020 wheat harvest and exports were left unchanged at 26.8 million tons and 18 million tons respectively.
Grain traders union UGA revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020/21 rapeseed harvest to 2.93 million tons from the previous outlook of 3.33 million tons.
UGA said it had also reduced its estimate for Ukraine’s 2020/21 rapeseed exports to 2.65 million tons from 3 million tons.
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